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Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution

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  • Salvucci, Raffaele
  • Tattini, Jacopo
  • Gargiulo, Maurizio
  • Lehtilä, Antti
  • Karlsson, Kenneth

Abstract

Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:232:y:2018:i:c:p:740-751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083
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