IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v231y2018icp29-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real-time prediction model for indoor temperature in a commercial building

Author

Listed:
  • Afroz, Zakia
  • Urmee, Tania
  • Shafiullah, G.M.
  • Higgins, Gary

Abstract

Indoor environmental parameters have significant influence on commercial building energy consumption and indoor thermal comfort. Prediction of these parameters, especially that of indoor air temperature, along with continuous monitoring and control of real world parameters can aid in the management of energy consumption and thermal comfort levels in existing buildings. An accurate indoor temperature prediction model assists in achieving an effective energy management strategy such as resetting air temperature set-points in commercial buildings. This study examines the real indoor environmental data for multiple adjacent zones in a commercial building in the context of thermal comfort and identifies the possibility of resetting air temperature set-point without compromising the occupant comfort level. Also, the value of predicting the indoor temperature accurately in such a building is established through this case study. This study presents a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs-based system identification method to predict indoor temperature. During model development efforts have been paid to optimize the performance of the model in terms of complexity, prediction results and ease of application to a real system. The performance of single-zone and multi-zone prediction models is evaluated using different combinations and sizes of training data-sets. This study confirms that evaluating the performance of the model in the context of major contributing aspects such as optimal input parameters and network size, optimum size of training data, etc. offers optimized model performance. Thus, when the developed model is used for long-term prediction, it provides better prediction performance for an extended time span compared to existing studies. Therefore, it is anticipated that implementation of this long-term prediction model will offer greater energy savings and improved indoor environmental conditions through optimizing the set-point temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Afroz, Zakia & Urmee, Tania & Shafiullah, G.M. & Higgins, Gary, 2018. "Real-time prediction model for indoor temperature in a commercial building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 29-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:231:y:2018:i:c:p:29-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191831362X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.052?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    2. Lü, Xiaoshu & Lu, Tao & Kibert, Charles J. & Viljanen, Martti, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption for heterogeneous buildings using a physical–statistical approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 261-275.
    3. Shaikh, Pervez Hameed & Nor, Nursyarizal Bin Mohd & Nallagownden, Perumal & Elamvazuthi, Irraivan & Ibrahim, Taib, 2014. "A review on optimized control systems for building energy and comfort management of smart sustainable buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 409-429.
    4. Costa, Andrea & Keane, Marcus M. & Torrens, J. Ignacio & Corry, Edward, 2013. "Building operation and energy performance: Monitoring, analysis and optimisation toolkit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 310-316.
    5. Ghahramani, Ali & Zhang, Kenan & Dutta, Kanu & Yang, Zheng & Becerik-Gerber, Burcin, 2016. "Energy savings from temperature setpoints and deadband: Quantifying the influence of building and system properties on savings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 930-942.
    6. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Zhao, Yang, 2017. "A short-term building cooling load prediction method using deep learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 222-233.
    7. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Wang, Shengwei, 2014. "Development of prediction models for next-day building energy consumption and peak power demand using data mining techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Afram, Abdul & Janabi-Sharifi, Farrokh, 2015. "Gray-box modeling and validation of residential HVAC system for control system design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 134-150.
    9. Zeng, Yaohui & Zhang, Zijun & Kusiak, Andrew, 2015. "Predictive modeling and optimization of a multi-zone HVAC system with data mining and firefly algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 393-402.
    10. Guo, Yabin & Wang, Jiangyu & Chen, Huanxin & Li, Guannan & Liu, Jiangyan & Xu, Chengliang & Huang, Ronggeng & Huang, Yao, 2018. "Machine learning-based thermal response time ahead energy demand prediction for building heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 16-27.
    11. Li, Qiong & Meng, Qinglin & Cai, Jiejin & Yoshino, Hiroshi & Mochida, Akashi, 2009. "Applying support vector machine to predict hourly cooling load in the building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2249-2256, October.
    12. von Grabe, Jörn, 2016. "Potential of artificial neural networks to predict thermal sensation votes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 412-424.
    13. Yadav, Amit Kumar & Malik, Hasmat & Chandel, S.S., 2014. "Selection of most relevant input parameters using WEKA for artificial neural network based solar radiation prediction models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 509-519.
    14. Wang, Lan & Lee, Eric W.M. & Yuen, Richard K.K., 2018. "Novel dynamic forecasting model for building cooling loads combining an artificial neural network and an ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1740-1753.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Zhang, Xu & Sun, Yongjun & Gao, Dian-ce & Zou, Wenke & Fu, Jianping & Ma, Xiaowen, 2022. "Similarity-based grouping method for evaluation and optimization of dataset structure in machine-learning based short-term building cooling load prediction without measurable occupancy information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    3. Sachin Kumar & Zairu Nisha & Jagvinder Singh & Anuj Kumar Sharma, 2022. "Sensor network driven novel hybrid model based on feature selection and SVR to predict indoor temperature for energy consumption optimisation in smart buildings," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3048-3061, December.
    4. Yang, Ting & Zhao, Liyuan & Li, Wei & Wu, Jianzhong & Zomaya, Albert Y., 2021. "Towards healthy and cost-effective indoor environment management in smart homes: A deep reinforcement learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    5. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    6. Yin, Peng & Xie, Jingchao & Ji, Ying & Liu, Jiaping & Hou, Qixian & Zhao, Shanshan & Jing, Pengfei, 2023. "Winter indoor thermal environment and heating demand of low-quality centrally heated houses in cold climates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    7. Jiale Tang & Kuixing Liu & Weijie You & Xinyu Zhang & Tuomi Zhang, 2023. "Research on Online Temperature Prediction Method for Office Building Interiors Based on Data Mining," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "A graph mining-based methodology for discovering and visualizing high-level knowledge for building energy management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Zakula, Tea & Bagaric, Marina & Ferdelji, Nenad & Milovanovic, Bojan & Mudrinic, Sasa & Ritosa, Katia, 2019. "Comparison of dynamic simulations and the ISO 52016 standard for the assessment of building energy performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    10. Tsoumalis, Georgios I. & Bampos, Zafeirios N. & Chatzis, Georgios V. & Biskas, Pandelis N. & Keranidis, Stratos D., 2021. "Minimization of natural gas consumption of domestic boilers with convolutional, long-short term memory neural networks and genetic algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    11. Pinto, Giuseppe & Deltetto, Davide & Capozzoli, Alfonso, 2021. "Data-driven district energy management with surrogate models and deep reinforcement learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    12. Sun, Hongchang & Niu, Yanlei & Li, Chengdong & Zhou, Changgeng & Zhai, Wenwen & Chen, Zhe & Wu, Hao & Niu, Lanqiang, 2022. "Energy consumption optimization of building air conditioning system via combining the parallel temporal convolutional neural network and adaptive opposition-learning chimp algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    13. Finck, Christian & Li, Rongling & Zeiler, Wim, 2020. "Optimal control of demand flexibility under real-time pricing for heating systems in buildings: A real-life demonstration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    14. Wang, Yanmin & Li, Zhiwei & Liu, Junjie & Pei, Mingzhe & Zhao, Yan & Lu, Xuan, 2023. "Data-driven analysis and prediction of indoor characteristic temperature in district heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    15. Finck, Christian & Li, Rongling & Zeiler, Wim, 2019. "Economic model predictive control for demand flexibility of a residential building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 365-379.
    16. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Xiao, Fu & Ma, Jie & Lee, Dasheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Tseng, Yen Chieh, 2020. "Statistical investigations of transfer learning-based methodology for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    17. van Vuuren, Dirk Johan & Marnewick, Annlizé & Pretorius, Jan Harm C., 2019. "A proposed simulation-based theoretical preconstruction process: The case of solar photovoltaic technology in South African shopping centres," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Gautham Krishnadas & Aristides Kiprakis, 2020. "A Machine Learning Pipeline for Demand Response Capacity Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Zhang, Liang & Wen, Jin & Li, Yanfei & Chen, Jianli & Ye, Yunyang & Fu, Yangyang & Livingood, William, 2021. "A review of machine learning in building load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2020. "Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    7. Afroz, Zakia & Shafiullah, GM & Urmee, Tania & Higgins, Gary, 2018. "Modeling techniques used in building HVAC control systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 64-84.
    8. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    9. O’Dwyer, Edward & Pan, Indranil & Acha, Salvador & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Smart energy systems for sustainable smart cities: Current developments, trends and future directions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 581-597.
    10. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Schmidt, Mischa & Åhlund, Christer, 2018. "Smart buildings as Cyber-Physical Systems: Data-driven predictive control strategies for energy efficiency," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 742-756.
    12. Kathirgamanathan, Anjukan & De Rosa, Mattia & Mangina, Eleni & Finn, Donal P., 2021. "Data-driven predictive control for unlocking building energy flexibility: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Xiao, Fu & Ma, Jie & Lee, Dasheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Tseng, Yen Chieh, 2020. "Statistical investigations of transfer learning-based methodology for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Yuwen You & Zhonghua Wang & Zhihao Liu & Chunmei Guo & Bin Yang, 2024. "Load Prediction of Regional Heat Exchange Station Based on Fuzzy Clustering Based on Fourier Distance and Convolutional Neural Network–Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-19, August.
    15. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Yan, Chengchu & Liu, Chengliang & Li, Zhengdao & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "A novel methodology to explain and evaluate data-driven building energy performance models based on interpretable machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1551-1560.
    16. Hwang, Jun Kwon & Yun, Geun Young & Lee, Sukho & Seo, Hyeongjoon & Santamouris, Mat, 2020. "Using deep learning approaches with variable selection process to predict the energy performance of a heating and cooling system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1227-1245.
    17. Kamel, Ehsan & Sheikh, Shaya & Huang, Xueqing, 2020. "Data-driven predictive models for residential building energy use based on the segregation of heating and cooling days," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    18. Chen, Zhiwen & Deng, Qiao & Ren, Hao & Zhao, Zhengrun & Peng, Tao & Yang, Chunhua & Gui, Weihua, 2022. "A new energy consumption prediction method for chillers based on GraphSAGE by combining empirical knowledge and operating data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    19. Gao, Zhikun & Yang, Siyuan & Yu, Junqi & Zhao, Anjun, 2024. "Hybrid forecasting model of building cooling load based on combined neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    20. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Ngo, Ngoc-Tri, 2016. "Time series analytics using sliding window metaheuristic optimization-based machine learning system for identifying building energy consumption patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 751-770.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:231:y:2018:i:c:p:29-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.