IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v169y2016icp384-394.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long run dynamic volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices

Author

Listed:
  • Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem
  • AlHajhoj, Hassan Rafdan

Abstract

Understanding the long-run dynamics of OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices is important in an era of increased financialization of petroleum markets. Utilizing an ECM within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework, we provide evidence on the cointegrating relationship and estimate how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate disequilibrium. Our findings suggest that the adjustment process of OPEC prices to the positive discrepancies is slow which implies that OPEC producers do not prefer moderate oil prices; however, the reverse holds for non-OPEC producers. These results reflect distinct competitive behaviors between OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem & AlHajhoj, Hassan Rafdan, 2016. "Long run dynamic volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 384-394.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:169:y:2016:i:c:p:384-394
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916301805
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
    2. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Lu, 2015. "Interpreting the crude oil price movements: Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 96-109.
    4. Diebold & Lopez, "undated". "Modeling Volatility Dynamics," Home Pages _062, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 2002. "Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(1), pages 116-139, Spring.
    6. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodríguez, "undated". "Residuals-based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-017, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    7. Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2008. "Asymptotic and bootstrap tests for linearity in a TAR-GARCH(1,1) model with a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 146-161, September.
    8. Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
    9. Lammerding, Marc & Stephan, Patrick & Trede, Mark & Wilfling, Bernd, 2013. "Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 491-502.
    10. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    11. Yue-Jun Zhang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2011. "The dynamic influence of advanced stock market risk on international crude oil returns: an empirical analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 967-978.
    12. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    13. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    14. Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336.
    15. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "How do OPEC news and structural breaks impact returns and volatility in crude oil markets? Further evidence from a long memory process," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-354.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    17. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
    18. Raymond Li, 2010. "The Role of OPEC in the World Oil Market," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(1), pages 83-85, April.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-186, January.
    20. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    21. Severin Borenstein & Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Incidence of an Oil Glut: Who Benefits from Cheap Crude Oil in the Midwest?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1), pages 15-34, January.
    22. Tuzova, Yelena & Qayum, Faryal, 2016. "Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-151.
    23. James L. Smith, 2009. "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 145-164, Summer.
    24. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    25. Wu, Gang & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2014. "Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-86.
    26. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 984-1014, October.
    27. Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2013. "Speculative trading and WTI crude oil futures price movement: An empirical analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 394-402.
    28. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Zi-Yi, 2013. "Investigating the price discovery and risk transfer functions in the crude oil and gasoline futures markets: Some empirical evidence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 220-228.
    29. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    30. Yue-Jun Zhang & Ting Yao & Zi-Yi Wang, 2015. "The bubble process of international crude oil futures prices: empirical evidence from the STAR model," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(1/2/3), pages 109-125.
    31. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bradford, Andrew & Belanger, Laura H. & Mclaughlin, John P. & Miki, Yosuke, 2008. "Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 333-351, March.
    32. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
    33. Horn, Manfred, 2004. "OPEC's optimal crude oil price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-280, January.
    34. Godby, Rob & Lintner, Anastasia M. & Stengos, Thanasis & Wandschneider, Bo, 2000. "Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 349-368, June.
    35. Hatanaka, Michio, 1996. "Time-Series-Based Econometrics: Unit Roots and Co-integrations," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773535.
    36. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
    37. De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "Crude oil price fluctuations and Saudi Arabia's behaviour," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 155-173, March.
    38. Chen, Li-Hsueh & Finney, Miles & Lai, Kon S., 2005. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 233-239, November.
    39. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    40. Ray, Bonnie K & Tsay, Ruey S, 2000. "Long-Range Dependence in Daily Stock Volatilities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 254-262, April.
    41. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Li-Hsueh Chen & Bassam Fattouh, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustments in Oil and Metals Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 183-204.
    42. Bradley T. Ewing & Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Mark A. Thompson, 2006. "Examining Asymmetric Behavior in US Petroleum Futures and Spot Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 9-24.
    43. Dermot Gately, 1993. "The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of World Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 163-182.
    44. Anton Nakov & Galo Nuño, 2013. "Saudi Arabia and the Oil Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(12), pages 1333-1362, December.
    45. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
    46. Horn, Manfred, 2004. "Erratum to "OPEC's optimal crude oil price": [Energy policy 32 (2004) 269]," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1452-1453, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
    2. Zhao, Lu-Tao & Wang, Yi & Guo, Shi-Qiu & Zeng, Guan-Rong, 2018. "A novel method based on numerical fitting for oil price trend forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 154-163.
    3. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Dadgar, Yadollah & Nazari, Rouhollah, 2020. "An analysis of the OPEC and non-OPEC position in the World Oil Market: A fractionally integrated approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    4. Jiang, Meihui & An, Haizhong & Jia, Xiaoliang & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 742-752.
    5. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2016. "الحساب الجاري للاقتصاد السعودي عبر نموذج داخلي الزمن دلائل من منهجية نموذج التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي [The Current Account of Saudi Economy through Intertemporal Model: Evidence from SVAR]," MPRA Paper 80302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    6. Restrepo, Natalia & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas, Diego, 2018. "Financial risk network architecture of energy firms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 630-642.
    7. Zhang, Qi & Di, Peng & Farnoosh, Arash, 2021. "Study on the impacts of Shanghai crude oil futures on global oil market and oil industry based on VECM and DAG models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Motunrayo O AKINSOLA & NM ODHIAMBO, 2020. "Oil Price And Economic Growth Of Oil-Importing Countries: A Review Of International Literature," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 129-140.
    9. Miljkovic, Dragan & Goetz, Cole, 2020. "The effects of futures markets on oil spot price volatility in regional US markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan Ghassan & Prashanta Banerjee, 2015. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC monthly crude oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 305-323, August.
    2. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    4. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior & Aleksander Welfe, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Fuel Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 105-127, June.
    6. Storhas, Dominik P. & De Mello, Lurion & Singh, Abhay Kumar, 2020. "Multiscale lead-lag relationships in oil and refined product return dynamics: A symbolic wavelet transfer entropy approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    8. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2015. "Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 281-291.
    9. Zhige Wu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink & Getu Hailu, 2018. "Asymmetric spot‐futures price adjustments in grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1549-1564, December.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.
    11. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lunackova, Petra, 2015. "Rockets and feathers meet Joseph: Reinvestigating the oil–gasoline asymmetry on the international markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-8.
    12. Hamid Baghestani & Jorg Bley, 2020. "Do directional predictions of US gasoline prices reveal asymmetries?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 348-360, April.
    13. Daiki Maki, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment of the equilibrium relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation rate," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(9), pages 1-8.
    14. Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel & Schneider, Jan, 2015. "Retail fuel price adjustment in Germany: A threshold cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Jordi Perdiguero-García, 2010. "“Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A metaanalysis approach”," IREA Working Papers 201013, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    16. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Guofeng & Liu, Guangsheng, 2015. "Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 444-456.
    17. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    18. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2010. "Modelling the Price of Unleaded Petrol in Australia’s Capital Cities," MPRA Paper 50396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Atanu Ghoshray and Tatiana Trifonova, 2014. "Dynamic Adjustment of Crude Oil Price Spreads," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    20. Robert Socha, 2014. "Asymetria relacji cen paliw płynnych w Polsce i cen ropy naftowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 133-160.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic volatility; Threshold cointegration; Component GARCH; OPEC; Oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F69 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:169:y:2016:i:c:p:384-394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.