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Examining Asymmetric Behavior in US Petroleum Futures and Spot Prices

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  • Bradley T. Ewing
  • Shawkat M. Hammoudeh
  • Mark A. Thompson

Abstract

This paper uses the momentum-threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model to examine the possible asymmetric relationship between petroleum futures and spot prices for three different markets: crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline in the United States. The results indicate that the futures and spot prices for each petroleum type are cointegrated when allowing for asymmetric adjustment for each of these energy markets. We further investigate the asymmetric behavior between the futures and spot prices by estimating the M-TAR error-correction model. The M-TAR model allows us to document the adjustments that these markets undergo in response to changes in the basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradley T. Ewing & Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Mark A. Thompson, 2006. "Examining Asymmetric Behavior in US Petroleum Futures and Spot Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 9-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006v27-03-a02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem & AlHajhoj, Hassan Rafdan, 2016. "Long run dynamic volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 384-394.
    2. Jiang, Jingze & Marsh, Thomas L. & Tozer, Peter R., 2015. "Policy induced price volatility transmission: Linking the U.S. crude oil, corn and plastics markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 217-227.
    3. Mohammadi, Hassan, 2009. "Electricity prices and fuel costs: Long-run relations and short-run dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 503-509, May.
    4. Chu V. Nguyen, & Muhammad Mahboob Ali, & Alexandru Mircea Nedelea, 2017. "The Behaviors Of Lending, Deposit Rates And Intermediation Premium Of Pakistani Banks With Different Types Of Ownership Structures," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 6(1), pages 1-49, January.
    5. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior & Aleksander Welfe, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Fuel Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 105-127, June.
    6. Qin, Xiao & Zhou, Chunyang & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "Revisiting asymmetric price transmission in the U.S. oil-gasoline markets: A multiple threshold error-correction analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 583-591.
    7. Jorge Antunes & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Rossana Riccardi & Yong Tan & Peter Wanke, 2022. "Unveiling endogeneity and temporal dependence in energy prices and demand in Iberian countries: a stochastic hidden Markov model approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 191-229, June.
    8. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Zhige Wu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink & Getu Hailu, 2018. "Asymmetric spot‐futures price adjustments in grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1549-1564, December.
    10. Hu, Jin-Li & Lin, Cheng-Hsun, 2008. "Disaggregated energy consumption and GDP in Taiwan: A threshold co-integration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2342-2358, September.
    11. Dibooglu, Sel & AlGudhea, Salim N., 2007. "All time cheaters versus cheaters in distress: An examination of cheating and oil prices in OPEC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 292-310, September.
    12. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & de Araújo, Fernando H.A. & Silva, Igor E.M., 2020. "The (in)efficiency of NYMEX energy futures: A multifractal analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 556(C).
    13. Storhas, Dominik P. & De Mello, Lurion & Singh, Abhay Kumar, 2020. "Multiscale lead-lag relationships in oil and refined product return dynamics: A symbolic wavelet transfer entropy approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Hassan Ghassan & Prashanta Banerjee, 2015. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC monthly crude oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 305-323, August.
    15. Hassan Mohammadi & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, 2012. "Oil prices and exchange rates in oil-exporting countries: evidence from TAR and M-TAR models," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 766-779, July.
    16. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Evidence from quantile cointegrating regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 924-935, September.
    17. Jeng Bau Lin & Chin Chia Liang, 2010. "Testing for threshold cointegration and error correction: evidence in the petroleum futures market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2897-2907.
    18. Mohammadi, Hassan, 2011. "Market integration and price transmission in the U.S. natural gas market: From the wellhead to end use markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 227-235, March.
    19. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
    20. Stephen Wilcox & John Geppert, 2007. "An error-correction model for forecasting changes in foreign currency futures spreads," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 122-142, March.
    21. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.
    22. Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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