IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v157y2015icp929-939.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can UK passenger vehicles be designed to meet 2020 emissions targets? A novel methodology to forecast fuel consumption with uncertainty analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Martin, Niall P.D.
  • Bishop, Justin D.K.
  • Choudhary, Ruchi
  • Boies, Adam M.

Abstract

Vehicle manufacturers are required to reduce their European sales-weighted emissions to 95g CO2/km by 2020, with the aim of reducing on-road fleet fuel consumption. Nevertheless, current fuel consumption models are not suited for the European market and are unable to account for uncertainties when used to forecast passenger vehicle energy-use. Therefore, a new methodology is detailed herein to quantify new car fleet fuel consumption based on vehicle design metrics. The New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) is shown to underestimate on-road fuel consumption in Spark (SI) and Compression Ignition (CI) vehicles by an average of 16% and 13%, respectively. A Bayesian fuel consumption model attributes these discrepancies to differences in rolling, frictional and aerodynamic resistances. Using projected inputs for engine size, vehicle mass, and compression ratio, the likely average 2020 on-road fuel consumption was estimated to be 7.6L/100km for SI and 6.4L/100km for CI vehicles. These compared to NEDC based estimates of 5.34L/100km (SI) and 4.28L/100km (CI), both of which exceeded mandatory 2020 fuel equivalent emissions standards by 30.2% and 18.9%, respectively. The results highlight the need for more stringent technological developments for manufacturers to ensure adherence to targets, and the requirements for more accurate measurement techniques that account for discrepancies between standardised and on-road fuel consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Niall P.D. & Bishop, Justin D.K. & Choudhary, Ruchi & Boies, Adam M., 2015. "Can UK passenger vehicles be designed to meet 2020 emissions targets? A novel methodology to forecast fuel consumption with uncertainty analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 929-939.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:929-939
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261915003281
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.044?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Jong, Gerard & Gunn, Hugh & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2004. "A meta-model for passenger and freight transport in Europe," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 329-344, October.
    2. Zervas, Efthimios, 2010. "Analysis of the CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 1. Analysis of general data and analysis per country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5413-5425, October.
    3. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, January.
    4. Christopher R. Knittel, 2011. "Automobiles on Steroids: Product Attribute Trade-Offs and Technological Progress in the Automobile Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3368-3399, December.
    5. Zervas, Efthimios, 2010. "Analysis of CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 3. Brands analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5442-5456, October.
    6. Zervas, Efthimios, 2010. "Analysis of the CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 2. Segment analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5426-5441, October.
    7. Bampatsou, Christina & Zervas, Efthimios, 2011. "Critique of the regulatory limitations of exhaust CO2 emissions from passenger cars in European union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7794-7802.
    8. Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2005. "Assessing policies towards sustainable transport in Europe: an integrated model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1509-1525, August.
    9. Hickman, Robin & Banister, David, 2007. "Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 377-387, September.
    10. Syri, Sanna & Amann, Markus & Capros, Pantelis & Mantzos, Leonidas & Cofala, Janusz & Klimont, Zbigniew, 2001. "Low-CO2 energy pathways and regional air pollution in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 871-884, September.
    11. Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
    12. Fontaras, Georgios & Dilara, Panagiota, 2012. "The evolution of European passenger car characteristics 2000–2010 and its effects on real-world CO2 emissions and CO2 reduction policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 719-730.
    13. Fulton, Lew & Cazzola, Pierpaolo & Cuenot, François, 2009. "IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) and its use in the ETP 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3758-3768, October.
    14. Demuynck, Joachim & Bosteels, Dirk & De Paepe, Michel & Favre, Cécile & May, John & Verhelst, Sebastian, 2012. "Recommendations for the new WLTP cycle based on an analysis of vehicle emission measurements on NEDC and CADC," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 234-242.
    15. Bandivadekar, Anup & Cheah, Lynette & Evans, Christopher & Groode, Tiffany & Heywood, John & Kasseris, Emmanuel & Kromer, Matthew & Weiss, Malcolm, 2008. "Reducing the fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions of the US vehicle fleet," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2754-2760, July.
    16. Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
    17. Bastani, Parisa & Heywood, John B. & Hope, Chris, 2012. "The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 517-548.
    18. Schafer, Andreas & Jacoby, Henry D., 2006. "Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 975-985, June.
    19. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp602 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jianan Chen & Hao Yu & Haocheng Xu & Qiang Lv & Zongqiang Zhu & Hao Chen & Feiyang Zhao & Wenbin Yu, 2024. "Investigation on Traffic Carbon Emission Factor Based on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Pavlovic, Jelica & Marotta, Alessandro & Ciuffo, Biagio, 2016. "CO2 emissions and energy demands of vehicles tested under the NEDC and the new WLTP type approval test procedures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-670.
    3. Ji, Shaobo & Chen, Qiulin & Shu, Minglei & Tian, Guohong & Liao, Baoliang & Lv, Chengju & Li, Meng & Lan, Xin & Cheng, Yong, 2020. "Influence of operation management on fuel consumption of coach fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Un, Puikei & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2016. "Modeling real-world fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions with high resolution for light-duty passenger vehicles in a traffic populated city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 461-471.
    5. Alam, Md. Saniul & Hyde, Bernard & Duffy, Paul & McNabola, Aonghus, 2017. "Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 283-300.
    6. Liu, Feiqi & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han, 2019. "Can autonomous vehicle reduce greenhouse gas emissions? A country-level evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 462-473.
    7. Tsiakmakis, Stefanos & Fontaras, Georgios & Ciuffo, Biagio & Samaras, Zissis, 2017. "A simulation-based methodology for quantifying European passenger car fleet CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 447-465.
    8. Timothy Bodisco & Ali Zare, 2019. "Practicalities and Driving Dynamics of a Real Driving Emissions (RDE) Euro 6 Regulation Homologation Test," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Shen, Peihong & Zhao, Zhiguo & Zhan, Xiaowen & Li, Jingwei, 2017. "Particle swarm optimization of driving torque demand decision based on fuel economy for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 89-107.
    10. Efthimios Zervas & Leonidas Vatikiotis & Zoe Gareiou & Stella Manika & Ruth Herrero-Martin, 2021. "Assessment of the Greek National Plan of Energy and Climate Change—Critical Remarks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
    2. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Rodríguez-López, Jesús & Marrero, Ángel S., 2019. "Analyzing CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe: A dynamic panel data approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1271-1281.
    3. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Honselaar, Michel & Thiel, Christian, 2012. "Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 404-421.
    4. Lucas, Alexandre & Alexandra Silva, Carla & Costa Neto, Rui, 2012. "Life cycle analysis of energy supply infrastructure for conventional and electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 537-547.
    5. Jesús Rodríguez-López & Gustavo A. Marrero & Rosa Marina González-Marrero, 2015. "Dieselization, CO2 emissions and fuel taxes in Europe," Working Papers 15.11, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    6. Gustavo A. Marrero & Jesús Rodríguez-López & Rosa Marina González, 2020. "Car usage, $${\text {CO}}_{2}$$CO2 emissions and fuel taxes in Europe," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 203-241, June.
    7. Fu, Miao & Andrew Kelly, J., 2012. "Carbon related taxation policies for road transport: Efficacy of ownership and usage taxes, and the role of public transport and motorist cost perception on policy outcomes," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 57-69.
    8. Brand, Christian, 2016. "Beyond ‘Dieselgate’: Implications of unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Brand, Christian & Anable, Jillian & Tran, Martino, 2013. "Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-148.
    10. Marrero, Ángel S. & Marrero, Gustavo A. & González, Rosa Marina & Rodríguez-López, Jesús, 2021. "Convergence in road transport CO2 emissions in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    11. Zawieska, Jakub & Pieriegud, Jana, 2018. "Smart city as a tool for sustainable mobility and transport decarbonisation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 39-50.
    12. Baptista, Patrícia C. & Silva, Carla M. & Farias, Tiago L. & Heywood, John B., 2012. "Energy and environmental impacts of alternative pathways for the Portuguese road transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 802-815.
    13. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & José Eduardo Alatorre & Orlando Reyes, 2015. "Metaanálisis de las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de energía: algunas implicaciones de politica pública para América Latina," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 38(75), pages 9-40.
    14. Pérez-López, Paula & Gasol, Carles M. & Oliver-Solà, Jordi & Huelin, Sagrario & Moreira, Ma Teresa & Feijoo, Gumersindo, 2013. "Greenhouse gas emissions from Spanish motorway transport: Key aspects and mitigation solutions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 705-713.
    15. Mijailović, Radomir, 2013. "The optimal lifetime of passenger cars based on minimization of CO2 emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 869-878.
    16. Ntziachristos, L. & Mellios, G. & Tsokolis, D. & Keller, M. & Hausberger, S. & Ligterink, N.E. & Dilara, P., 2014. "In-use vs. type-approval fuel consumption of current passenger cars in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 403-411.
    17. Travesset-Baro, Oriol & Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó. & Jover, Eric & Rosas-Casals, Marti, 2016. "Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 78-92.
    18. Bampatsou, Christina & Zervas, Efthimios, 2011. "Critique of the regulatory limitations of exhaust CO2 emissions from passenger cars in European union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7794-7802.
    19. Fontaras, Georgios & Dilara, Panagiota, 2012. "The evolution of European passenger car characteristics 2000–2010 and its effects on real-world CO2 emissions and CO2 reduction policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 719-730.
    20. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:929-939. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.