IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v157y2015icp699-709.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Poghosyan, Anush
  • Greetham, Danica Vukadinović
  • Haben, Stephen
  • Lee, Tamsin

Abstract

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences – that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Poghosyan, Anush & Greetham, Danica Vukadinović & Haben, Stephen & Lee, Tamsin, 2015. "Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 699-709.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:699-709
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.02.069
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261915002548
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.02.069?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Junjie Sun & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2007. "Dynamic Testing of Wholesale Power Market Designs: An Open-Source Agent-Based Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 291-327, October.
    2. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    3. Foley, Aoife & Tyther, Barry & Calnan, Patrick & Ó Gallachóir, Brian, 2013. "Impacts of Electric Vehicle charging under electricity market operations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 93-102.
    4. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    5. Ventosa, Mariano & Baillo, Alvaro & Ramos, Andres & Rivier, Michel, 2005. "Electricity market modeling trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 897-913, May.
    6. Yang, Jun & He, Lifu & Fu, Siyao, 2014. "An improved PSO-based charging strategy of electric vehicles in electrical distribution grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 82-92.
    7. Weidlich, Anke & Veit, Daniel, 2008. "A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1728-1759, July.
    8. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    9. Ma, Tieju & Nakamori, Yoshiteru, 2009. "Modeling technological change in energy systems – From optimization to agent-based modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 873-879.
    10. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Hirsh, Richard F., 2009. "Beyond batteries: An examination of the benefits and barriers to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1095-1103, March.
    11. Salah, Florian & Ilg, Jens P. & Flath, Christoph M. & Basse, Hauke & Dinther, Clemens van, 2015. "Impact of electric vehicles on distribution substations: A Swiss case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 88-96.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenpo & Zhang, Lei & Sun, Fengchun & Cui, Dingsong & Hecht, Christopher & Figgener, Jan & Sauer, Dirk Uwe, 2023. "Electric vehicle behavior modeling and applications in vehicle-grid integration: An overview," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    2. Ghadimi, Noradin & Akbarimajd, Adel & Shayeghi, Hossein & Abedinia, Oveis, 2018. "Two stage forecast engine with feature selection technique and improved meta-heuristic algorithm for electricity load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-142.
    3. Luciano C. Siebert & Adriana Sbicca & Alexandre Rasi Aoki & Germano Lambert-Torres, 2017. "A Behavioral Economics Approach to Residential Electricity Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will buy electric vehicles after early adopters? Using machine learning to identify the electric vehicle mainstream market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 243-254.
    5. Yunusov, Timur & Frame, Damien & Holderbaum, William & Potter, Ben, 2016. "The impact of location and type on the performance of low-voltage network connected battery energy storage systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 202-213.
    6. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie & Zhang, Hongzhi, 2017. "The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 800-816.
    7. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Kivimaa, Paula & Hielscher, Sabine & Jenkins, Kirsten, 2017. "Vulnerability and resistance in the United Kingdom's smart meter transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 767-781.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    2. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska & Katarzyna Maciejowska & Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Going green: Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of dynamic electricity tariffs," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    6. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    7. Salehizadeh, Mohammad Reza & Soltaniyan, Salman, 2016. "Application of fuzzy Q-learning for electricity market modeling by considering renewable power penetration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1172-1181.
    8. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.
    9. Kraan, O. & Kramer, G.J. & Nikolic, I., 2018. "Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 569-580.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Weiss, Olga & Pareschi, Giacomo & Georges, Gil & Boulouchos, Konstantinos, 2021. "The Swiss energy transition: Policies to address the Energy Trilemma," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Johnston, Barry & Al Kez, Dlzar & Foley, Aoife, 2024. "Assessing the effects of increasing offshore wind generation on marginal cost in the Irish electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
    14. Flores, Robert J. & Shaffer, Brendan P. & Brouwer, Jacob, 2017. "Electricity costs for a Level 3 electric vehicle fueling station integrated with a building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 367-384.
    15. Yang, Zhile & Li, Kang & Foley, Aoife, 2015. "Computational scheduling methods for integrating plug-in electric vehicles with power systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 396-416.
    16. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    17. Ringler, Philipp & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of smart electricity grids and markets – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-215.
    18. Maeder, Mattia & Weiss, Olga & Boulouchos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Assessing the need for flexibility technologies in decarbonized power systems: A new model applied to Central Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    19. Flores, Robert J. & Shaffer, Brendan P. & Brouwer, Jacob, 2016. "Electricity costs for an electric vehicle fueling station with Level 3 charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 813-830.
    20. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Agent-based models and economic policy," Post-Print hal-03461120, HAL.
    21. Constanza Fosco, 2012. "Spatial Difusion and Commuting Flows," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 30, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
    22. Edouard Civel & Marc Baudry, 2018. "The Fate of Inventions. What can we learn from Bayesian learning in strategic options model of adoption ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-47, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    23. Langley, David J. & Hoeve, Maarten C. & Ortt, J. Roland & Pals, Nico & van der Vecht, Bob, 2014. "Patterns of Herding and their Occurrence in an Online Setting," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 16-25.
    24. Yujuico, Emmanuel, 2015. "Considerations in the diffusion of a public traffic app for Metro Manila," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 48-56.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:699-709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.