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Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark

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  • Andersen, F.M.
  • Larsen, H.V.
  • Gaardestrup, R.B.

Abstract

Long term projections of hourly electricity consumption in local areas are important for planning of the transmission grid. In Denmark, at present the method used for grid planning is based on statistical analysis of the hour of maximum load and for each local area the maximum load is projected to change proportional to changes in the aggregated national electricity consumption. That is, specific local conditions are not considered. Yet, from measurements of local consumption we know that:

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, F.M. & Larsen, H.V. & Gaardestrup, R.B., 2013. "Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 147-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:110:y:2013:i:c:p:147-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.04.046
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    12. Yukseltan, E. & Kok, A. & Yucekaya, A. & Bilge, A. & Aktunc, E. Agca & Hekimoglu, M., 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and behavioral restrictions on electricity consumption and the daily demand curve in Turkey," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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    15. Sanstad, Alan H. & McMenamin, Stuart & Sukenik, Andrew & Barbose, Galen L. & Goldman, Charles A., 2014. "Modeling an aggressive energy-efficiency scenario in long-range load forecasting for electric power transmission planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 265-276.
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    17. Yukseltan, Ergun & Yucekaya, Ahmet & Bilge, Ayse Humeyra, 2017. "Forecasting electricity demand for Turkey: Modeling periodic variations and demand segregation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 287-296.
    18. Andersen, F.M. & Larsen, H.V. & Juul, N. & Gaardestrup, R.B., 2014. "Differentiated long term projections of the hourly electricity consumption in local areas. The case of Denmark West," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 523-538.
    19. Jose Juan Caceres-Hernandez & Gloria Martin-Rodriguez & Jonay Hernandez-Martin, 2022. "A proposal for measuring and comparing seasonal variations in hourly economic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1995-2021, April.
    20. F. M. Andersen & H. V. Larsen & L. Kitzing & P. E. Morthorst, 2014. "Who gains from hourly time‐of‐use retail prices on electricity? An analysis of consumption profiles for categories of Danish electricity customers," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(6), pages 582-593, November.
    21. Ali K k & Erg n Y kseltan & Mustafa Hekimo lu & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ahmet Y cekaya & Ay e Bilge, 2022. "Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demand Under COVID-19 Restrictions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 73-85.
    22. Gerossier, Alexis & Barbier, Thibaut & Girard, Robin, 2017. "A novel method for decomposing electricity feeder load into elementary profiles from customer information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 752-760.
    23. Tulin Guzel & Hakan Cinar & Mehmet Nabi Cenet & Kamil Doruk Oguz & Ahmet Yucekaya & Mustafa Hekimoglu, 2023. "A Framework to Forecast Electricity Consumption of Meters using Automated Ranking and Data Preprocessing," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 179-193, September.
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