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Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark

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  • Andersen, F.M.
  • Larsen, H.V.
  • Gaardestrup, R.B.

Abstract

Long term projections of hourly electricity consumption in local areas are important for planning of the transmission grid. In Denmark, at present the method used for grid planning is based on statistical analysis of the hour of maximum load and for each local area the maximum load is projected to change proportional to changes in the aggregated national electricity consumption. That is, specific local conditions are not considered. Yet, from measurements of local consumption we know that:

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, F.M. & Larsen, H.V. & Gaardestrup, R.B., 2013. "Long term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption in local areas in Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 147-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:110:y:2013:i:c:p:147-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.04.046
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    6. Lintao Yang & Honggeng Yang & Haitao Liu, 2018. "GMDH-Based Semi-Supervised Feature Selection for Electricity Load Classification Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    14. F. M. Andersen & H. V. Larsen & L. Kitzing & P. E. Morthorst, 2014. "Who gains from hourly time‐of‐use retail prices on electricity? An analysis of consumption profiles for categories of Danish electricity customers," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(6), pages 582-593, November.
    15. Yukseltan, E. & Kok, A. & Yucekaya, A. & Bilge, A. & Aktunc, E. Agca & Hekimoglu, M., 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and behavioral restrictions on electricity consumption and the daily demand curve in Turkey," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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    18. Dedinec, Aleksandra & Filiposka, Sonja & Dedinec, Aleksandar & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2016. "Deep belief network based electricity load forecasting: An analysis of Macedonian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1688-1700.
    19. Sanstad, Alan H. & McMenamin, Stuart & Sukenik, Andrew & Barbose, Galen L. & Goldman, Charles A., 2014. "Modeling an aggressive energy-efficiency scenario in long-range load forecasting for electric power transmission planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 265-276.
    20. Gerossier, Alexis & Barbier, Thibaut & Girard, Robin, 2017. "A novel method for decomposing electricity feeder load into elementary profiles from customer information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 752-760.
    21. Tulin Guzel & Hakan Cinar & Mehmet Nabi Cenet & Kamil Doruk Oguz & Ahmet Yucekaya & Mustafa Hekimoglu, 2023. "A Framework to Forecast Electricity Consumption of Meters using Automated Ranking and Data Preprocessing," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 179-193, September.
    22. Alobaidi, Mohammad H. & Chebana, Fateh & Meguid, Mohamed A., 2018. "Robust ensemble learning framework for day-ahead forecasting of household based energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 997-1012.
    23. Erik Dahlquist & Fredrik Wallin & Koteshwar Chirumalla & Reza Toorajipour & Glenn Johansson, 2023. "Balancing Power in Sweden Using Different Renewable Resources, Varying Prices, and Storages Like Batteries in a Resilient Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-28, June.
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    25. Feng, Yonghan & Ryan, Sarah M., 2016. "Day-ahead hourly electricity load modeling by functional regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 455-465.

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