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Analysis of the vectorial capacity of vector-borne diseases using moment-generating functions

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  • Villela, Daniel A.M.

Abstract

The vectorial capacity of a mosquito species that is a disease-vector indicates the expected number of infectious bites given by all mosquitoes infected from biting a single infected human individual, assuming perfect transmissions between humans and vectors. Assessing this number for different transmitting species of the same disease, such as dengue or malaria, expresses how capable these species are of spreading the disease. We describe the vectorial capacity as a random process and present a model for analyzing its probability distribution. Our stochastic model permits us to obtain the moment-generating function for the distribution of the vectorial capacity and, under reasonable assumptions, the probability distribution itself. A stochastic modeling framework is helpful for analyzing the dynamics of disease spreading, such as when performing sensitivity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Villela, Daniel A.M., 2016. "Analysis of the vectorial capacity of vector-borne diseases using moment-generating functions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 290(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:290:y:2016:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2016.05.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ball, Frank & Donnelly, Peter, 1995. "Strong approximations for epidemic models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Miranda Chan & Michael A Johansson, 2012. "The Incubation Periods of Dengue Viruses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-7, November.
    3. Daniel A M Villela & Claudia T Codeço & Felipe Figueiredo & Gabriela A Garcia & Rafael Maciel-de-Freitas & Claudio J Struchiner, 2015. "A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zan, Yongli, 2018. "DSIR double-rumors spreading model in complex networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 191-202.

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