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Strong approximations for epidemic models

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  • Ball, Frank
  • Donnelly, Peter

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the approximation of early stages of epidemic processes by branching processes. A general model for an epidemic in a closed, homogeneously mixing population is presented. A construction of a sequence of such epidemics, indexed by the initial number of susceptibles N, from the limiting branching process is described. Strong convergence of the epidemic processes to the branching process is shown when the latter goes extinct. When the branching process does not go extinct, necessary and sufficient conditions on the sequence (tN) for strong convergence over the time interval [0, tN] are provided. Convergence of a wide variety of functionals of the epidemic process to corresponding functionals of the branching process is shown, and bounds are provided on the total variation distance for given N. The theory is illustrated by reference to the general stochastic epidemic. Generalisations to, for example, multipopulation epidemics are described briefly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ball, Frank & Donnelly, Peter, 1995. "Strong approximations for epidemic models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:55:y:1995:i:1:p:1-21
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Demiris, Nikolaos & Kypraios, Theodore & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2012. "On the epidemic of financial crises," MPRA Paper 46693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wierman, John C. & Marchette, David J., 2004. "Modeling computer virus prevalence with a susceptible-infected-susceptible model with reintroduction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-23, February.
    3. Villela, Daniel A.M., 2016. "Analysis of the vectorial capacity of vector-borne diseases using moment-generating functions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 290(C), pages 1-8.
    4. Johannes Müler & Volker Hösel, 2007. "Estimating the Tracing Probability from Contact History at the Onset of an Epidemic," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 211-236, November.
    5. Terrazas-Santamaria Diana & Mendoza-Palacios Saul & Berasaluce-Iza Julen, 2023. "An Alternative Approach to Frequency of Patent Technology Codes: The Case of Renewable Energy Generation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Simon, Matthieu, 2020. "SIR epidemics with stochastic infectious periods," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(7), pages 4252-4274.
    7. Clancy, Damian & O'Neill, Philip, 1998. "Approximation of epidemics by inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 233-245, March.
    8. Barbour, A. D. & Utev, Sergey, 2004. "Approximating the Reed-Frost epidemic process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 173-197, October.
    9. Chen, Zezhun & Dassios, Angelos & Kuan, Valerie & Lim, Jia Wei & Qu, Yan & Surya, Budhi & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2021. "A two-phase dynamic contagion model for COVID-19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105064, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Ball, Frank & Neal, Peter, 2003. "The great circle epidemic model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 233-268, October.
    11. Claude Lefe`vre & Sergey Utev, 1999. "Branching Approximation for the Collective Epidemic Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 211-228, September.

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