IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/anture/v84y2020ics0160738320301134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The shares method for revealing latent tourism demand

Author

Listed:
  • Eugenio-Martin, Juan L.
  • Cazorla-Artiles, José M.

Abstract

This paper develops an intuitive methodology to reveal latent tourism demand. The aim is to quantify its scale by distinguishing the pair of origin-destination and the kind of tourism. The methodology starts measuring the market size that depends on origin population size and their willingness to participate in outbound tourism. Additionally, it takes into account the varying preferences of each origin population for different kinds of tourism. Finally, it compares the current market share of tourism with the expected market share, which is estimated using a random parameter logit model. The study draws on data from EU-28 countries. It provides indicators to select target markets to be strengthened and design strategies based on better air connectivity or oriented marketing campaigns.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Cazorla-Artiles, José M., 2020. "The shares method for revealing latent tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:84:y:2020:i:c:s0160738320301134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.102969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160738320301134
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102969?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joaquín Alegre & Llorenç Pou, 2004. "Micro-Economic Determinants of the Probability of Tourism Consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 125-144, June.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    3. Melenberg, Bertrand & van Soest, Arthur, 1996. "Parametric and Semi-parametric Modelling of Vacation Expenditures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 59-76, Jan.-Feb..
    4. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Twan Huybers & Jeff Bennett, 2003. "Environmental Management and the Competitiveness of Nature-Based Tourism Destinations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(3), pages 213-233, March.
    6. Oliveira, Alessandro V.M., 2008. "An empirical model of low-cost carrier entry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 673-695, May.
    7. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, November.
    8. Eymann, Angelika & Ronning, Gerd, 1997. "Microeconometric models of tourists' destination choice," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 735-761, November.
    9. Brian Cushing & Jacques Poot, 2004. "Crossing boundaries and borders: Regional science advances in migration modelling," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Raymond J. G. M. Florax & David A. Plane (ed.), Fifty Years of Regional Science, pages 317-338, Springer.
    10. Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Campos-Soria, Juan A., 2010. "Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 744-753.
    11. Kah, Junghye A. & Lee, Choong-Ki & Lee, Seong-Hoon, 2016. "Spatial–temporal distances in travel intention–behavior," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 160-175.
    12. Kim, Hong-bumm & Park, Jung-Ho & Lee, Seul Ki & Jang, SooCheong (Shawn), 2012. "Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1141-1147.
    13. Ya-Yen Sun & Pei-Chun Lin, 2019. "How far will we travel? A global distance pattern of international travel from both demand and supply perspectives," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(8), pages 1200-1223, December.
    14. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    15. Barbot, Cristina, 2006. "Low-cost airlines, secondary airports, and state aid: An economic assessment of the Ryanair–Charleroi Airport agreement," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 197-203.
    16. Alderighi, Marco & Gaggero, Alberto A., 2019. "Flight availability and international tourism flows," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Hanitra Rakotondramaro & Laurent Botti, 2017. "Optimizing tourist demands with utility efficient frontier," Post-Print hal-02453868, HAL.
    18. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    19. van Soest, Arthur & Kooreman, Peter, 1987. "A Micro-econometric Analysis of Vacation Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 215-226, July.
    20. Juan Eugenio-Martin & Juan Campos-Soria, 2011. "Income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2519-2531.
    21. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    22. Twan Huybers, 2003. "Modelling Short-Break Holiday Destination Choices," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(4), pages 389-405, December.
    23. Bart Neuts & João Romão & Peter Nijkamp & Asami Shikida, 2016. "Market segmentation and their potential economic impacts in an ecotourism destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 793-808, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lóránt Dénes Dávid & János Csapó & Ákos Nagy & Mária Törőcsik, 2020. "Can We Understand Non-Tourism as a Form of Sustainable Tourism? The Role of Lifestyle and Motivations behind Non-Traveling Based on the Hungarian Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Bernardina Algieri & Antonio à lvarez, 2023. "Assessing the ability of regions to attract foreign tourists: The case of Italy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 788-811, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Eugenio-Martin & Juan Campos-Soria, 2011. "Income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2519-2531.
    2. Bernini, Cristina & Cracolici, Maria Francesca, 2015. "Demographic change, tourism expenditure and life cycle behaviour," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 191-205.
    3. Cristina Bernini & Maria Francesca Cracolici, 2014. "Is Participation in Tourism Market an Opportunity for Everyone? Some Evidence from Italy," Working Papers 2014.17, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Alegre, Joaquín & Mateo, Sara & Pou, Llorenç, 2010. "An analysis of households' appraisal of their budget constraints for potential participation in tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56.
    5. Campos-Soria, Juan A. & Inchausti-Sintes, Federico & Eugenio-Martin, Juan L., 2015. "Understanding tourists' economizing strategies during the global economic crisis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 164-173.
    6. Chia-Yu Yeh & Kang Ernest Liu, 2019. "Modeling Household Participation Decisions Between Domestic And International Trips By Semi-Nonparametric Regressions," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(01), pages 191-211, March.
    7. Maximilian Weigert & Alexander Bauer & Johanna Gernert & Marion Karl & Asmik Nalmpatian & Helmut Küchenhoff & Jürgen Schmude, 2022. "Semiparametric APC analysis of destination choice patterns: Using generalized additive models to quantify the impact of age, period, and cohort on travel distances," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1377-1400, August.
    8. Alegre, Joaquín & Mateo, Sara & Pou, Llorenç, 2013. "Tourism participation and expenditure by Spanish households: The effects of the economic crisis and unemployment," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 37-49.
    9. Daniele Crotti & Elena Maggi & Evangelia Pantelaki, 2022. "Urban cycling tourism. How can bikes and public transport ride together for sustainability?," Working Papers 2022.01, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Marcos à lvarez-Díaz & José María Chamorro-Rivas & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2024. "The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on intra- and inter-regional domestic travel: Evidence from Spain," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 1039-1061, June.
    11. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    12. Bujosa Bestard, Ángel & Rosselló Nadal, Jaume, 2011. "Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 863-880, Diciembre.
    13. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    14. Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten, 2018. "Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, July.
    15. Wang, Kun & Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Li, Lan-Bing & Lei, Zheng & Fu, Xiaowen, 2020. "Entry pattern of low-cost carriers in New Zealand - The impact of domestic and trans-Tasman market factors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 36-45.
    16. Francisco J. Mas & Juan Luis Nicolau, 2004. "Heckit Modelling Of The Two-Stage Tourist Choice Process: Going On Holiday And Tourism Expenditures," Working Papers. Serie EC 2004-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    17. Nicolau, Juan L., 2011. "Differentiated price loss aversion in destination choice: The effect of tourists’ cultural interest," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1186-1195.
    18. Francisco J. Más & Juan Luis Nicolau, 2006. "A New Marketing Segmentation Approach Based On Marginal Individual Utilities: Applying Crm Is Not A Chimera Anymore," Working Papers. Serie EC 2006-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    19. Guang Yang & Yan Han & Hao Gong & Tiantian Zhang, 2020. "Spatial-Temporal Response Patterns of Tourist Flow under Real-Time Tourist Flow Diversion Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-28, April.
    20. Kátay, Gábor & Péter, Harasztosi, 2017. "Currency Matching and Carry Trade by Non-Financial Corporations," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2017-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:84:y:2020:i:c:s0160738320301134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/annals-of-tourism-research/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.