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Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

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  • Liu, Suxia
  • Mo, Xingguo
  • Lin, Zhonghui
  • Xu, Yueqing
  • Ji, Jinjun
  • Wen, Gang
  • Richey, Jeff

Abstract

Global climate change may impact grain production as atmospheric conditions and water supply change, particularly intensive cropping, such as double wheat-maize systems. The effects of climate change on grain production of a winter wheat-summer maize cropping system were investigated, corresponding to the temperature rising 2 and 5°C, precipitation increasing and decreasing by 15% and 30%, and atmospheric CO2 enriching to 500 and 700ppmv. The study focused on two typical counties in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain (covering most of the North China Plain), Botou in the north and Huaiyuan in the south, considering irrigated and rain-fed conditions, respectively. Climate change scenarios, derived from available ensemble outputs from general circulation models and the historical trend from 1996 to 2004, were used as atmospheric forcing to a bio-geo-physically process-based dynamic crop model, Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP). VIP simulates full coupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, and other energy and water transfer processes. The projected crop yields are significantly different from the baseline yield, with the minimum, mean (±standardized deviation, SD) and maximum changes being -46%, -10.3±20.3%, and 49%, respectively. The overall yield reduction of -18.5±22.8% for a 5°C increase is significantly greater than -2.3±13.2% for a 2°C increase. The negative effect of temperature rise on crop yield is partially mitigated by CO2 fertilization. The response of a C3 crop (wheat) to the temperature rise is significantly more sensitive to CO2 fertilization and less negative than the response of C4 (maize), implying a challenge to the present double wheat-maize systems. Increased precipitation significantly mitigated the loss and increased the projected gain of crop yield. Conversely, decreased precipitation significantly exacerbated the loss and reduced the projected gain of crop yield. Irrigation helps to mitigate the decreased crop yield, but CO2 enrichment blurs the role of irrigation. The crops in the wetter southern 3H Plain (Huaiyuan) are significantly more sensitive to climate change than crops in the drier north (Botou). Thus CO2 fertilization effects might be greater under drier conditions. The study provides suggestions for climate change adaptation and sound water resources management in the 3H Plain.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Suxia & Mo, Xingguo & Lin, Zhonghui & Xu, Yueqing & Ji, Jinjun & Wen, Gang & Richey, Jeff, 2010. "Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1195-1209, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:97:y:2010:i:8:p:1195-1209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xu, Yueqing & Mo, Xingguo & Cai, Yunlong & Li, Xiubin, 2005. "Analysis on groundwater table drawdown by land use and the quest for sustainable water use in the Hebei Plain in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 38-53, July.
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    2. Xiaoxiao Li & Jing Ma & Yongjun Yang & Huping Hou & Gang-Jun Liu & Fu Chen, 2019. "Short-Term Response of Soil Microbial Community to Field Conversion from Dryland to Paddy under the Land Consolidation Process in North China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Parisa Paymard & Mohammad Bannayan & Reza Sadrabadi Haghighi, 2018. "Analysis of the climate change effect on wheat production systems and investigate the potential of management strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1237-1255, April.
    4. Xiangbin Kong & Baoguo Li & Rattan Lal & Lei Han & Hongjun Lei & Kejiang Li & Youlu Bai, 2012. "Soil Organic Carbon Stock and Crop Yields in Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, China," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 4(12), pages 140-140, November.
    5. Ren, Pinpin & Huang, Feng & Li, Baoguo, 2022. "Spatiotemporal patterns of water consumption and irrigation requirements of wheat-maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China and options of their reduction," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    6. Yang, Xiaolin & Gao, Wangsheng & Shi, Quanhong & Chen, Fu & Chu, Qingquan, 2013. "Impact of climate change on the water requirement of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai farming region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 20-27.
    7. Shirazi, Sana Zeeshan & Mei, Xurong & Liu, Buchun & Liu, Yuan, 2022. "Estimating potential yield and change in water budget for wheat and maize across Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in the future," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Mohammad Bannayan & Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, 2014. "Future production of rainfed wheat in Iran (Khorasan province): climate change scenario analysis," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 211-227, February.
    9. Yifei Xu & Te Li & Min Xu & Ling Tan & Shuanghe Shen, 2024. "Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Wang, Weiguang & Yu, Zhongbo & Zhang, Wei & Shao, Quanxi & Zhang, Yiwei & Luo, Yufeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Xu, Junzeng, 2014. "Responses of rice yield, irrigation water requirement and water use efficiency to climate change in China: Historical simulation and future projections," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 249-261.
    11. Libing Song & Jiming Jin & Jianqiang He, 2019. "Effects of Severe Water Stress on Maize Growth Processes in the Field," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Yingchun Li & Wei Xiong & Wei Hu & Pam Berry & Hui Ju & Erda Lin & Wen Wang & Kuo Li & Jie Pan, 2015. "Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 355-366, February.
    13. Xiaopei Yi & Naijie Chang & Wuhan Ding & Chi Xu & Jing Zhang & Jianfeng Zhang & Hu Li, 2022. "Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, July.
    14. Wan Nie & Hongyan Guo & Lei Yang & Yaoyang Xu & Gang Li & Xiaohong Ruan & Yongguan Zhu & Liding Chen & Steven A. Banwart, 2020. "Economic Valuation of Earth’s Critical Zone: A Pilot Study of the Zhangxi Catchment, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Longyun Deng & Yi Li & Zhi Cao & Ruifang Hao & Zheye Wang & Junxiao Zou & Quanyuan Wu & Jianmin Qiao, 2022. "Revealing Impacts of Human Activities and Natural Factors on Dynamic Changes of Relationships among Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-21, August.
    16. Khondoker A. Mottaleb & Roderick M. Rejesus & MVR Murty & Samarendu Mohanty & Tao Li, 2017. "Benefits of the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice: ex ante impact assessment of drought-tolerant rice in South Asia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 879-901, August.
    17. E. Eyshi Rezaei & T. Gaiser & S. Siebert & F. Ewert, 2015. "Adaptation of crop production to climate change by crop substitution," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1155-1174, October.

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