Improved understanding of how irrigated area expansion enhances precipitation recycling by land–atmosphere coupling

Large-scale agricultural activities can intensify atmospheric–terrestrial interactions, of which precipitation recycling plays a critical role. During 1982–2018, irrigated area has dramatically expanded in Northwest China (NWC). In this study, a regional precipitation recycling model—the Brubaker model was used to investigate the precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) and recycled precipitation (RP). Evapotranspiration (ET) estimated by the atmospheric–terrestrial water balance method (A–T) was employed to investigate precipitation recycling. Statistically, there was a turning point in 2002 for the rate in irrigated area increase, from 0.07 × 106 ha/year before 2002–0.217 × 106 ha/year after 2002. There were significant shifts in ET, PRR, and RP in NWC, using the turning point of irrigated area expansion as the line of demarcation. The contribution of the change in irrigated area to PRR increased from 18.3% (1982–2002) to 22.9% (2003–2018) in NWC. Prior to 2002, enhanced RP offset the increased ET by 72.9%. After 2002, the positive effect of irrigated area expansion on precipitation recycling disappeared in NWC. Due to the different climate and irrigation practices at the province level, the variations in irrigated area and their contributions to PRR were examined in three provinces, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shaanxi. Results based on the Brubaker model and Budyko framework indicate that in Xinjiang and Gansu, the contribution of the irrigated area change after the turning point to PRR were 24.5% and -95.6%, respectively, and there is no potential for continued expansion of irrigated area. In Shaanxi, however, there is potential for continued expansion of irrigated area. The methodology for quantifying the impact of irrigated area change on PRR provides reliable references for the sustainable use of cultivated land and the protection of agricultural water resources.