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Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

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  • Delphine Clara Zemp

    (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Present address: Biodiversity, Macroecology & Conservation Biogeography, University of Goettingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Climate Analytics)

  • Henrique M. J. Barbosa

    (Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Marina Hirota

    (Federal University of Santa Catarina, Campus Universitário Reitor João David Ferreira Lima
    Institute of Biology, University of Campinas)

  • Vincent Montade

    (Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, Georg-August-University)

  • Gilvan Sampaio

    (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE))

  • Arie Staal

    (Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University)

  • Lan Wang-Erlandsson

    (Delft University of Technology
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University)

  • Anja Rammig

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich)

Abstract

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

Suggested Citation

  • Delphine Clara Zemp & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Henrique M. J. Barbosa & Marina Hirota & Vincent Montade & Gilvan Sampaio & Arie Staal & Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Anja Rammig, 2017. "Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms14681
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14681
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    Cited by:

    1. Rau, E-Ping & Fischer, Fabian & Joetzjer, Émilie & Maréchaux, Isabelle & Sun, I Fang & Chave, Jérôme, 2022. "Transferability of an individual- and trait-based forest dynamics model: A test case across the tropics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 463(C).
    2. Flach, Rafaela & Abrahão, Gabriel & Bryant, Benjamin & Scarabello, Marluce & Soterroni, Aline C. & Ramos, Fernando M. & Valin, Hugo & Obersteiner, Michael & Cohn, Avery S., 2021. "Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Bert Wuyts & Alan R Champneys & Nicolas Verschueren & Jo I House, 2019. "Tropical tree cover in a heterogeneous environment: A reaction-diffusion model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Araujo, Rafael, 2024. "The value of tropical forests to hydropower," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. M.J. Mace & Claire L. Fyson & Michiel Schaeffer & William L. Hare, 2021. "Large‐Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal to Meet the 1.5°C Limit: Key Governance Gaps, Challenges and Priority Responses," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 67-81, April.
    6. Paim, Maria-Augusta & Dalmarco, Arthur R. & Yang, Chung-Han & Salas, Pablo & Lindner, Sören & Mercure, Jean-Francois & de Andrade Guerra, José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório & Derani, Cristiane & Bruce , 2019. "Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 393-401.

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