IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v265y2022ics0378377422000919.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yu
  • Liu, Xiaohong
  • Jiao, Wenzhe
  • Zhao, Liangju
  • Zeng, Xiaomin
  • Xing, Xiaoyu
  • Zhang, Lingnan
  • Hong, Yixue
  • Lu, Qiangqiang

Abstract

Flash drought is an extreme phenomenon, characterized by unusually rapid intensification of drought severity, with strong impacts on plant growth especially for crops. However, it’s unclear how hydrometeorological changes contribute to flash drought and how vegetation physiology, greenness, and productivity respond to flash drought. In this study, we developed an multivariate integrated framework for flash drought identification using a regression model based on principal-components analysis (PCA): the PCA regression flash drought (PRFD) model. Three criteria are specified to emphasize the rapid intensification of drought and its impacts on vegetation growth and water resources. We applied our new model in two geographical units with different climates and hydrology: one is dominated by agriculture and subject to natural drought (the Loess Plateau) and the other, a natural region with infrequent drought (the Qinling Mountains). We found that high frequency of flash droughts is most likely to occur in the eastern and central Loess Plateau and part of the Qinling Mountains. However, in relatively humid areas, flash drought shows strong intensity such as the Qinling Mountains and western and eastern edges of the Loess Plateau. Trend analysis indicates that PRFD has increased frequency, longer duration, and stronger intensity since the 1990s in both regions. From an ecological perspective, PRFD also showed a spatial pattern consistent with values of vegetation-related proxies that were below the long-term average, demonstrating vegetation transpiration, normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI), gross primary productivity have obvious feedback on flash drought events. The Loess Plateau’s NDVI responded immediately to flash drought, versus a 1-month lag in the Qinling Mountains. Because our proposed framework integrates multiple aspects of drought information, it can be applied in areas outside the study region according to regional hydrometeorological conditions. This has significant implications for improving agricultural management and forecasting future severe impacts of flash drought on plant growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yu & Liu, Xiaohong & Jiao, Wenzhe & Zhao, Liangju & Zeng, Xiaomin & Xing, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Lingnan & Hong, Yixue & Lu, Qiangqiang, 2022. "A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:265:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422000919
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107544
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377422000919
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107544?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angeline G. Pendergrass & Gerald A. Meehl & Roger Pulwarty & Mike Hobbins & Andrew Hoell & Amir AghaKouchak & Céline J. W. Bonfils & Ailie J. E. Gallant & Martin Hoerling & David Hoffmann & Laurna Kaa, 2020. "Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 191-199, March.
    2. A. Park Williams & Craig D. Allen & Alison K. Macalady & Daniel Griffin & Connie A. Woodhouse & David M. Meko & Thomas W. Swetnam & Sara A. Rauscher & Richard Seager & Henri D. Grissino-Mayer & Jeffre, 2013. "Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 292-297, March.
    3. Xing Yuan & Linying Wang & Peili Wu & Peng Ji & Justin Sheffield & Miao Zhang, 2019. "Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Kimberly A. Novick & Darren L. Ficklin & Paul C. Stoy & Christopher A. Williams & Gil Bohrer & A. Christopher Oishi & Shirley A. Papuga & Peter D. Blanken & Asko Noormets & Benjamin N. Sulman & Russel, 2016. "The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1023-1027, November.
    5. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
    6. Michael Leonard & Seth Westra & Aloke Phatak & Martin Lambert & Bart van den Hurk & Kathleen McInnes & James Risbey & Sandra Schuster & Doerte Jakob & Mark Stafford‐Smith, 2014. "A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 113-128, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuzhong Shi & Linlin Zhao & Xueyan Zhao & Haixia Lan & Hezhi Teng, 2022. "The Integrated Impact of Drought on Crop Yield and Farmers’ Livelihood in Semi-Arid Rural Areas in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Sinan Wang & Xigang Xing & Yingjie Wu & Jianying Guo & Mingyang Li & Bin Fu, 2024. "Seasonal Response of the NDVI to the SPEI at Different Time Scales in Yinshanbeilu, Inner Mongolia, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Xingjiao & Qian, Long & Wang, Wen’e & Hu, Xiaotao & Dong, Jianhua & Pi, Yingying & Fan, Kai, 2023. "Comprehensive evaluation of terrestrial evapotranspiration from different models under extreme condition over conterminous United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    2. Yamin Qing & Shuo Wang & Brian C. Ancell & Zong-Liang Yang, 2022. "Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Jinhua Wen & Yian Hua & Chenkai Cai & Shiwu Wang & Helong Wang & Xinyan Zhou & Jian Huang & Jianqun Wang, 2023. "Probabilistic Forecast and Risk Assessment of Flash Droughts Based on Numeric Weather Forecast: A Case Study in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Liu, Qiuyu & Peng, Changhui & Schneider, Robert & Cyr, Dominic & Liu, Zelin & Zhou, Xiaolu & Kneeshaw, Daniel, 2021. "TRIPLEX-Mortality model for simulating drought-induced tree mortality in boreal forests: Model development and evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    6. Ning Chen & Yifei Zhang & Fenghui Yuan & Changchun Song & Mingjie Xu & Qingwei Wang & Guangyou Hao & Tao Bao & Yunjiang Zuo & Jianzhao Liu & Tao Zhang & Yanyu Song & Li Sun & Yuedong Guo & Hao Zhang &, 2023. "Warming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Shan Jiang & Jian Zhou & Guojie Wang & Qigen Lin & Ziyan Chen & Yanjun Wang & Buda Su, 2022. "Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO 2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    8. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.
    9. Elbeltagi, Ahmed & Srivastava, Aman & Deng, Jinsong & Li, Zhibin & Raza, Ali & Khadke, Leena & Yu, Zhoulu & El-Rawy, Mustafa, 2023. "Forecasting vapor pressure deficit for agricultural water management using machine learning in semi-arid environments," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    10. Alyssa M. Willson & Anna T. Trugman & Jennifer S. Powers & Chris M. Smith-Martin & David Medvigy, 2022. "Climate and hydraulic traits interact to set thresholds for liana viability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Jordan I. Christian & Jeffrey B. Basara & Eric D. Hunt & Jason A. Otkin & Jason C. Furtado & Vimal Mishra & Xiangming Xiao & Robb M. Randall, 2021. "Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Orpita U. Laz & Ataur Rahman & Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, 2023. "Compound heatwave and drought hotspots and their trends in Southeast Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 357-386, October.
    13. Linghui Guo & Yuanyuan Luo & Yao Li & Tianping Wang & Jiangbo Gao & Hebing Zhang & Youfeng Zou & Shaohong Wu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    14. Muhammad Amin & Mobushir Riaz Khan & Sher Shah Hassan & Muhammad Imran & Muhammad Hanif & Irfan Ahmad Baig, 2023. "Determining satellite-based evapotranspiration product and identifying relationship with other observed data in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 23-39, January.
    15. Wang, Han & Xiang, Youzhen & Liao, Zhenqi & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Xueyan & Huang, Xiangyang & Zhang, Fucang & Feng, Li, 2024. "Integrated assessment of water-nitrogen management for winter oilseed rape production in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    16. Jinsoo Hwang & Hyunjoon Kim, 2019. "Consequences of a green image of drone food delivery services: The moderating role of gender and age," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 872-884, July.
    17. Ma, Shuai & Wang, Liang-Jie & Chu, Lei & Jiang, Jiang, 2023. "Determination of ecological restoration patterns based on water security and food security in arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    18. Rui Zhang & Taotao Chen & Daocai Chi, 2020. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at Different Time Scales in Jilin Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, February.
    19. Mengmeng Gao & Nan Yang & Qiong Liu, 2024. "What Drives Vegetation Evolution in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Basin, Climate Change or Human Activities?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.
    20. Kaoru Kakinuma & Aki Yanagawa & Takehiro Sasaki & Mukund Palat Rao & Shinjiro Kanae, 2019. "Socio-ecological Interactions in a Changing Climate: A Review of the Mongolian Pastoral System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:265:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422000919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.