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Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Angeline G. Pendergrass

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Gerald A. Meehl

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Roger Pulwarty

    (NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division)

  • Mike Hobbins

    (NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division
    University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Andrew Hoell

    (NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division)

  • Amir AghaKouchak

    (University of California)

  • Céline J. W. Bonfils

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Ailie J. E. Gallant

    (Monash University
    Monash University)

  • Martin Hoerling

    (NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division)

  • David Hoffmann

    (Monash University
    Monash University)

  • Laurna Kaatz

    (Denver Water)

  • Flavio Lehner

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Dagmar Llewellyn

    (Bureau of Reclamation)

  • Philip Mote

    (Oregon State University)

  • Richard B. Neale

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Jonathan T. Overpeck

    (University of Michigan)

  • Amanda Sheffield

    (NOAA/NIDIS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

  • Kerstin Stahl

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Mark Svoboda

    (University of Nebraska–Lincoln)

  • Matthew C. Wheeler

    (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Andrew W. Wood

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Connie A. Woodhouse

    (University of Arizona)

Abstract

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Angeline G. Pendergrass & Gerald A. Meehl & Roger Pulwarty & Mike Hobbins & Andrew Hoell & Amir AghaKouchak & Céline J. W. Bonfils & Ailie J. E. Gallant & Martin Hoerling & David Hoffmann & Laurna Kaa, 2020. "Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 191-199, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0709-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jinhua Wen & Yian Hua & Chenkai Cai & Shiwu Wang & Helong Wang & Xinyan Zhou & Jian Huang & Jianqun Wang, 2023. "Probabilistic Forecast and Risk Assessment of Flash Droughts Based on Numeric Weather Forecast: A Case Study in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Yu, Xingjiao & Qian, Long & Wang, Wen’e & Hu, Xiaotao & Dong, Jianhua & Pi, Yingying & Fan, Kai, 2023. "Comprehensive evaluation of terrestrial evapotranspiration from different models under extreme condition over conterminous United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    3. Yamin Qing & Shuo Wang & Brian C. Ancell & Zong-Liang Yang, 2022. "Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Anni Arumsari Fitriany & Piotr J. Flatau & Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik & Nelly Florida Riama, 2021. "Assessment on the Use of Meteorological and Social Media Information for Forest Fire Detection and Prediction in Riau, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    5. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Jordan I. Christian & Jeffrey B. Basara & Eric D. Hunt & Jason A. Otkin & Jason C. Furtado & Vimal Mishra & Xiangming Xiao & Robb M. Randall, 2021. "Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Zhang, Yu & Liu, Xiaohong & Jiao, Wenzhe & Zhao, Liangju & Zeng, Xiaomin & Xing, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Lingnan & Hong, Yixue & Lu, Qiangqiang, 2022. "A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    9. Zachary H. Hoylman & R. Kyle Bocinsky & Kelsey G. Jencso, 2022. "Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

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