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Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

Author

Listed:
  • A. Park Williams

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Craig D. Allen

    (US Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station)

  • Alison K. Macalady

    (School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
    Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Daniel Griffin

    (School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
    Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Connie A. Woodhouse

    (School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
    Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • David M. Meko

    (Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Thomas W. Swetnam

    (Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Sara A. Rauscher

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Richard Seager

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Henri D. Grissino-Mayer

    (Laboratory of Tree-Ring Science, The University of Tennessee)

  • Jeffrey S. Dean

    (Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Edward R. Cook

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Chandana Gangodagamage

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Michael Cai

    (Space Data Systems, Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Nate G. McDowell

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

Abstract

As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Park Williams & Craig D. Allen & Alison K. Macalady & Daniel Griffin & Connie A. Woodhouse & David M. Meko & Thomas W. Swetnam & Sara A. Rauscher & Richard Seager & Henri D. Grissino-Mayer & Jeffre, 2013. "Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 292-297, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:3:d:10.1038_nclimate1693
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1693
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