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Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

Author

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  • Matthias Zahn

    (Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, 3 Earley Gate, Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AL, UK
    Institute for Coastal Research /System Analysis and Modelling, GKSS-Research Centre, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany)

  • Hans von Storch

    (Institute for Coastal Research /System Analysis and Modelling, GKSS-Research Centre, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany
    Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

Polar lows more scarce? Climate change is often associated with an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves or intense precipitation. Matthias Zahn and Hans von Storch use downscaled climate-model simulations to show that, in some circumstances, the opposite can also be true. They show that the incidence of North Atlantic polar lows — intense storms (sometimes called Arctic hurricanes) that are too small in area to be included in most general-circulation models — is likely to decrease by the late twenty-first century. The change is driven by a stronger increase in mid-tropospheric temperatures than in sea surface temperatures: this increases atmospheric stability and decreases the formation of polar lows.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Zahn & Hans von Storch, 2010. "Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7313), pages 309-312, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:467:y:2010:i:7313:d:10.1038_nature09388
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09388
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    Cited by:

    1. Harsem, Øistein & Eide, Arne & Heen, Knut, 2011. "Factors influencing future oil and gas prospects in the Arctic," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8037-8045.
    2. Maria Frías & Roberto Mínguez & Jose Gutiérrez & Fernando Méndez, 2012. "Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 371-392, July.
    3. Erik T. Smith & Scott C. Sheridan, 2021. "Projections of cold air outbreaks in CMIP6 earth system models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Funes, I. & Savé, R. & de Herralde, F. & Biel, C. & Pla, E. & Pascual, D. & Zabalza, J. & Cantos, G. & Borràs, G. & Vayreda, J. & Aranda, X., 2021. "Modeling impacts of climate change on the water needs and growing cycle of crops in three Mediterranean basins," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    5. Xueke Li & Scott R. Stephenson & Amanda H. Lynch & Michael A. Goldstein & David A. Bailey & Siri Veland, 2021. "Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-19, July.
    6. S. Herrera & J. Bedia & J. Gutiérrez & J. Fernández & J. Moreno, 2013. "On the projection of future fire danger conditions with various instantaneous/mean-daily data sources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 827-840, June.

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