IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v221y2024ics0308521x2400252x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Indigenous small-scale agriculture and food systems in Guatemala - Hybrid Bayesian inference for data-poor regions

Author

Listed:
  • Malard-Adam, Julien
  • Adamowski, Jan
  • Tuy, Héctor
  • Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo

Abstract

Participatory system dynamics modelling is a useful method for characterising agricultural systems and the complex dynamics linking their human and agronomic counterparts that determine their long-term behaviour and sustainability. One challenge facing this use of system dynamics methods, nonetheless, is the scarcity of time-series data for many key variables, which hinders the calibration and validation of these models.

Suggested Citation

  • Malard-Adam, Julien & Adamowski, Jan & Tuy, Héctor & Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo, 2024. "Modelling Indigenous small-scale agriculture and food systems in Guatemala - Hybrid Bayesian inference for data-poor regions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:221:y:2024:i:c:s0308521x2400252x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X2400252X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104102?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parsons, David & Nicholson, Charles F. & Blake, Robert W. & Ketterings, Quirine M. & Ramírez-Aviles, Luis & Cherney, Jerome H. & Fox, Danny G., 2011. "Application of a simulation model for assessing integration of smallholder shifting cultivation and sheep production in Yucatán, Mexico," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 13-19, January.
    2. Barlas, Yaman, 1989. "Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 59-87, September.
    3. Juliana Isaac & Jaime Luís Carrera & Ottoniel Monterroso Rivas & Juventino Gálvez Ruano & María Rueda Martínez & Azam Khowaja & Julian Russell & Julien Malard‐Adam & Humberto Monardes & Jan Adamowski , 2023. "Evaluating and mitigating locally and nationally variable food security dynamics in Guatemala through participatory causal loop diagram building," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 39(3), pages 239-276, July.
    4. Marín, Víctor H. & Rodríguez, Luis C. & Niemeyer, Hermann M., 2012. "A socio-ecological model of the Opuntia scrublands in the Peruvian Andes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 136-146.
    5. Arulingam, Indika & Brady, G. & Chaya, M. & Conti, M. & Kgomotso, P. K. & Korzenszky, A. & Njie, D. & Schroth, G. & Suhardiman, Diana, 2022. "Small-scale producers in sustainable agrifood systems transformation," IWMI Reports 329171, International Water Management Institute.
    6. Hugo Jose Herrera de Leon & Birgit Kopainsky, 2019. "Do you bend or break? System dynamics in resilience planning for food security," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 35(4), pages 287-309, October.
    7. Arulingam, Indika & Brady, G. & Chaya, M. & Conti, M. & Kgomotso, P. K. & Korzenszky, A. & Njie, D. & Schroth, G. & Suhardiman, Diana, 2022. "Small-scale producers in sustainable agrifood systems transformation," IWMI Books, Reports H051435, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Rasmussen, Laura Vang & Rasmussen, Kjeld & Reenberg, Anette & Proud, Simon, 2012. "A system dynamics approach to land use changes in agro-pastoral systems on the desert margins of Sahel," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 56-64.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Yongeun & Lee, Minyoung & Hong, Jinsol & Lee, Yun-Sik & Wee, June & Cho, Kijong, 2024. "Development of a fuzzy logic-embedded system dynamics model to simulate complex socio-ecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    2. Juliana Isaac & Jaime Luís Carrera & Ottoniel Monterroso Rivas & Juventino Gálvez Ruano & María Rueda Martínez & Azam Khowaja & Julian Russell & Julien Malard‐Adam & Humberto Monardes & Jan Adamowski , 2023. "Evaluating and mitigating locally and nationally variable food security dynamics in Guatemala through participatory causal loop diagram building," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 39(3), pages 239-276, July.
    3. Oliva, Rogelio, 2003. "Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 552-568, December.
    4. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. Kun Cheng & Qiang Fu & Xi Chen & Tianxiao Li & Qiuxiang Jiang & Xiaosong Ma & Ke Zhao, 2015. "Adaptive Allocation Modeling for a Complex System of Regional Water and Land Resources Based on Information Entropy and its Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 4977-4993, November.
    6. Torres, Juan Pablo & Barrera, Jose Ignacio & Kunc, Martin & Charters, Steve, 2021. "The dynamics of wine tourism adoption in Chile," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 474-485.
    7. Poot-López, Gaspar Román & Hernández, Juan M. & Gasca-Leyva, Eucario, 2010. "Input management in integrated agriculture-aquaculture systems in Yucatan: Tree spinach leaves as a dietary supplement in tilapia culture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 98-104, February.
    8. Nazanin Hosseini Arian & Alireza Pooya & Fariborz Rahimnia & Ali Sibevei, 2021. "Assessment the effect of rapid prototyping implementation on supply chain sustainability: a system dynamics approach," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 467-493, December.
    9. Matthew, George Jr. & Nuttall, William J & Mestel, Ben & Dooley, Laurence S, 2017. "A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 121-131.
    10. Hawwin Mardhiana & Erma Suryani & Ully Asfari & Muhammad Nasrullah, 2021. "System Dynamic Framework: Increasing Productivity Of Sugarcane To Support Sustainable Cultivation," Sustainability in Food and Agriculture (SFNA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 105-109, June.
    11. Jian, Yuqing & Liu, Zhengjia & Gong, Jianzhou, 2022. "Response of landscape dynamics to socio-economic development and biophysical setting across the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China and its implications for regional sustainable land management," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    13. Ye, Rui-Ke & Gao, Zhuang-Fei & Fang, Kai & Liu, Kang-Li & Chen, Jia-Wei, 2021. "Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Popat, Meizal & Cacho, Oscar & Griffith, Garry & Mounter, Stuart, 2022. "Food loss and waste in maize in Mozambique and its economic impacts: a system dynamics assessment approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 61(3), July.
    15. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2015. "Independent power (or pollution) producers? Electricity reforms and IPPs in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 240-251.
    16. Pacín, Fernando & Oesterheld, Martín, 2014. "In-farm diversity stabilizes return on capital in Argentine agro-ecosystems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 51-59.
    17. He Yin & Van Butsic & Johanna Buchner & Tobias Kuemmerle & Alexander V. Prishchepov & Matthias Baumann & Eugenia V. Bragina & Hovik Sayadyan & Volker C. Radeloff, 2019. "Agricultural abandonment and recultivation during and after the Chechen Wars in the northern Caucasus," HiCN Working Papers 294, Households in Conflict Network.
    18. David C. Lane & Jim Duggan, 2020. "Addressing public health and security challenges with system dynamics," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 867-874, November.
    19. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2014. "Green power in Ontario: A dynamic model-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 859-870.
    20. Aima Khan & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2023. "Modelling the dynamics of firm valuation: An assessment of impact of exchange rate fluctuations on firm value using system dynamics," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 890-900, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:221:y:2024:i:c:s0308521x2400252x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.