Evaluating and mitigating locally and nationally variable food security dynamics in Guatemala through participatory causal loop diagram building

Various methods have been proposed to analyze national trends of malnutrition and food insecurity; however, these methods often fail to consider regional specificities that drive national food security dynamics. This case study seeks to close this gap through the novel use of participatory causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to analyze the malnutrition crisis and food security dynamics across diverse regions of Guatemala. Stakeholders from six municipalities with divergent food security outcomes, within territories of similar socioeconomic composition, created CLDs by identifying trends, causes, and consequences of malnutrition and food security. Characterizing and assessing these trends, referred to as the food security dynamic, are the primary goals of this paper. Key results include identification of the complex reinforcing relationship between marginalization, education, and health, which affects food insecurity and malnutrition in Guatemala in a nonlinear way. These results elucidate how similar communities can experience divergent food security outcomes and inform locally appropriate solutions. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.