IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v211y2023ics0308521x23001385.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of a Bayesian network modelling approach to predict the cascading effects of COVID-19 restrictions on the planting activities of smallholder farmers in Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Semakula, Henry Musoke
  • Liang, Song
  • Mukwaya, Paul Isolo
  • Mugagga, Frank

Abstract

There are rising concerns over the cascading effects induced by COVID-19 restrictions on the planting activities of smallholder farmers in low and middle-income countries, which may become a non-negligible threat to the long-term food security. Studies that utilize probability based models to examine the effects of COVID-19 restrictions on planting activities of smallholder farmers are scare, with no available evidence on Uganda. Yet these effects do not act in isolation, and are known to be complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional.

Suggested Citation

  • Semakula, Henry Musoke & Liang, Song & Mukwaya, Paul Isolo & Mugagga, Frank, 2023. "Application of a Bayesian network modelling approach to predict the cascading effects of COVID-19 restrictions on the planting activities of smallholder farmers in Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:211:y:2023:i:c:s0308521x23001385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103733
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X23001385
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103733?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcot, Bruce G., 2012. "Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 50-62.
    2. Middendorf, B. Jan & Faye, Aliou & Middendorf, Gerad & Stewart, Zachary P. & Jha, Prakash K. & Prasad, P.V. Vara, 2021. "Smallholder farmer perceptions about the impact of COVID-19 on agriculture and livelihoods in Senegal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Alexander R. Marsden & Kerstin K. Zander & Jonatan A. Lassa, 2023. "Smallholder Farming during COVID-19: A Systematic Review Concerning Impacts, Adaptations, Barriers, Policy, and Planning for Future Pandemics," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Dalia Štreimikienė & Tomas Baležentis & Artiom Volkov & Erika Ribašauskienė & Mangirdas Morkūnas & Agnė Žičkienė, 2022. "Negative effects of covid-19 pandemic on agriculture: systematic literature review in the frameworks of vulnerability, resilience and risks involved," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 529-545, December.
    5. Jody Harris & Lutz Depenbusch & Arshad Ahmad Pal & Ramakrishnan Madhavan Nair & Srinivasan Ramasamy, 2020. "Food system disruption: initial livelihood and dietary effects of COVID-19 on vegetable producers in India," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 841-851, August.
    6. Mahmud, Mahreen & Riley, Emma, 2021. "Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Peter Agamile, 2022. "COVID-19 Lockdown and Exposure of Households to Food Insecurity in Uganda: Insights from a National High Frequency Phone Survey," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 3050-3075, December.
    8. T. S. Amjath-Babu & Timothy J. Krupnik & Shakuntala H. Thilsted & Andrew J. McDonald, 2020. "Key indicators for monitoring food system disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Bangladesh towards effective response," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 761-768, August.
    9. Henry Musoke Semakula & Guobao Song & Simon Peter Achuu & Miaogen Shen & Jingwen Chen & Paul Isolo Mukwaya & Martin Oulu & Patrick Mwanzia Mwendwa & Jannette Abalo & Shushen Zhang, 2017. "Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 415-428, August.
    10. Joshua Brubaker & Talip Kilic & Philip Wollburg, 2021. "Representativeness of individual-level data in COVID-19 phone surveys: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-27, November.
    11. Gourlay, Sydney & Kilic, Talip & Martuscelli, Antonio & Wollburg, Philip & Zezza, Alberto, 2021. "Viewpoint: High-frequency phone surveys on COVID-19: Good practices, open questions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. Collins C. Okolie & Abiodun A. Ogundeji, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on agricultural production and food security: A scientometric analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Nchanji, Eileen Bogweh & Lutomia, Cosmas Kweyu & Chirwa, Rowland & Templer, Noel & Rubyogo, Jean Claude & Onyango, Patricia, 2021. "Immediate impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on bean value chain in selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Kansiime, Monica K. & Tambo, Justice A. & Mugambi, Idah & Bundi, Mary & Kara, Augustine & Owuor, Charles, 2021. "COVID-19 implications on household income and food security in Kenya and Uganda: Findings from a rapid assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Sorin Cheval & Cristian Mihai Adamescu & Teodoro Georgiadis & Mathew Herrnegger & Adrian Piticar & David R. Legates, 2020. "Observed and Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Environment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-25, June.
    16. Stefano Beretta & Mauro Castelli & Ivo Gonçalves & Roberto Henriques & Daniele Ramazzotti, 2018. "Learning the Structure of Bayesian Networks: A Quantitative Assessment of the Effect of Different Algorithmic Schemes," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-12, September.
    17. Jha, P.K. & Araya, A. & Stewart, Z.P. & Faye, A. & Traore, H. & Middendorf, B.J. & Prasad, P.V.V., 2021. "Projecting potential impact of COVID-19 on major cereal crops in Senegal and Burkina Faso using crop simulation models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boglárka Anna Éliás & Attila Jámbor, 2021. "Food Security and COVID-19: A Systematic Review of the First-Year Experience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong & Emmanuel Nshakira-Rukundo & Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan, 2023. "COVID-19 and food insecurity in Africa: A review of the emerging empirical evidence," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(3), pages 853-878.
    3. Mutegi, James & Adolwa, Ivan & Kiwia, Abed & Njoroge, Samuel & Gitonga, Angela & Muthamia, Joses & Nchanji, Eileen & Mairura, Franklin & Majumdar, Kaushik & Zingore, Shamie & Oberthur, Thomas & Kiremu, 2024. "Agricultural production and food security implications of Covid-19 disruption on small-scale farmer households: Lessons from Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Abdullah Kaviani Rad & Redmond R. Shamshiri & Hassan Azarm & Siva K. Balasundram & Muhammad Sultan, 2021. "Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Security and Agriculture in Iran: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Stephens, Emma & Timsina, Jagadish & Martin, Guillaume & van Wijk, Mark & Klerkx, Laurens & Reidsma, Pytrik & Snow, Val, 2022. "The immediate impact of the first waves of the global COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural systems worldwide: Reflections on the COVID-19 special issue for agricultural systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    6. Gheorghe Cristian Popescu & Monica Popescu, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture in Romania: effects on agricultural systems, compliance with restrictions and relations with authorities," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(2), pages 557-567, April.
    7. Catherine Nkirote Kunyanga & Morten Fibieger Byskov & Keith Hyams & Samuel Mburu & Grace Werikhe & Rawlynce Bett, 2023. "Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Market Prices and Food Supply in Urban Markets in Nairobi, Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Hammond, James & Siegal, Kim & Milner, Daniel & Elimu, Emmanuel & Vail, Taylor & Cathala, Paul & Gatera, Arsene & Karim, Azfar & Lee, Ja-Eun & Douxchamps, Sabine & Tu, Mai Thanh & Ouma, Emily & Lukuyu, 2022. "Perceived effects of COVID-19 restrictions on smallholder farmers: Evidence from seven lower- and middle-income countries," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Rönkkö, Risto & Rutherford, Stuart & Sen, Kunal, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poor: Insights from the Hrishipara diaries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Lindsay M. Jaacks & Divya Veluguri & Rajesh Serupally & Aditi Roy & Poornima Prabhakaran & GV Ramanjaneyulu, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural production, livelihoods, and food security in India: baseline results of a phone survey," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(5), pages 1323-1339, October.
    12. Nan Li & Muzi Chen & Difang Huang, 2022. "How Do Logistics Disruptions Affect Rural Households? Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Aminou Arouna & Souleïmane A. Adekambi & Rachidi Aboudou & Wilfried Gnipabo Yergo & Gaudiose Mujawamariya, 2024. "Impact assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic on the income and food security of rice smallholder producers in five African countries," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Hemant G. Tripathi & Harriet E. Smith & Steven M. Sait & Susannah M. Sallu & Stephen Whitfield & Astrid Jankielsohn & William E. Kunin & Ndumiso Mazibuko & Bonani Nyhodo, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Diverse Farm Systems in Tanzania and South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    15. Ouoba, Youmanli & Sawadogo, Natéwindé, 2022. "Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders’ households," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    16. Joseph B. Ajefu & Ayse Demir & Padmali Rodrigo, 2023. "Covid-19-induced Shocks, Access to Basic Needs and Coping Strategies," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(6), pages 1347-1368, December.
    17. Simone Schotte & Michael Danquah & Robert Darko Osei & Kunal Sen, 2023. "The Labour Market Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 10-33.
    18. Elizabeth Opiyo Onyango & Bernard Owusu & Jonathan S. Crush, 2023. "COVID-19 and Urban Food Security in Ghana during the Third Wave," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, February.
    19. Rudin-Rush, Lorin & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Josephson, Anna & Bloem, Jeffrey R., 2022. "Food insecurity during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Agamile, Peter, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdown and exposure of households to food insecurity in Uganda: insights from a high frequency phone survey," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313950, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:211:y:2023:i:c:s0308521x23001385. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.