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Use and relevance of European Union crop monitoring and yield forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • van der Velde, Marijn
  • Biavetti, Irene
  • El-Aydam, Mohamed
  • Niemeyer, Stefan
  • Santini, Fabien
  • van den Berg, Maurits

Abstract

Since 1993, the JRC has put in operation a crop monitoring and yield forecasting system for Europe, the results of which are published in the JRC MARS Bulletin (currently every month). This paper outlines how the agro-meteorological analyses, country-specific overviews of crop conditions, and crop yield forecasts reported in the Bulletin are used and how these respond to the diverse needs of different types of stakeholders. Stakeholders from more than 32 countries download the JRC MARS Bulletin, in peak-season up to 1500 downloads occur in the first days after publication. The readership of the Bulletin is diverse, coming from governments (e.g. Ministries of Agriculture), private companies (e.g. commodity traders, banking), media, and research and academia. On the list of stakeholders that want to be notified of the release of the Bulletin, roughly 37% originate from business, 35% from research and development, 22% from government, and 6% from the media. The primary user is the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG-AGRI) of the European Commission, which uses the forecasts to quantify the production estimates for crop supply balance sheets and to identify regions with exceptional (mostly weather related) challenges that might require a policy response. The information for wheat, maize and rice is shared through the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) thus contributing to increased global market transparency and better governance of agriculture and food policies. The largest business use is in market information, financial, and consultancy services, followed by commodity trading. Examples of use in media reports as well as online feedback to those, e.g. by farmer's organizations, are also presented. Downloads of the Bulletin peak in the month before harvest at the time when the forecasts can be of most value for stakeholder decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Velde, Marijn & Biavetti, Irene & El-Aydam, Mohamed & Niemeyer, Stefan & Santini, Fabien & van den Berg, Maurits, 2019. "Use and relevance of European Union crop monitoring and yield forecasts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 224-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:168:y:2019:i:c:p:224-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marijn Velde & Francesco Tubiello & Anton Vrieling & Fayçal Bouraoui, 2012. "Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 751-765, August.
    2. Bezuidenhout, C.N. & Singels, A., 2007. "Operational forecasting of South African sugarcane production: Part 1 - System description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-3), pages 23-38, January.
    3. Andrew M. McKenzie, 2008. "Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 351-366.
    4. Tamara Ben-Ari & Julien Boé & Philippe Ciais & Remi Lecerf & Marijn Van der Velde & David Makowski, 2018. "Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Bussay, Attila & van der Velde, Marijn & Fumagalli, Davide & Seguini, Lorenzo, 2015. "Improving operational maize yield forecasting in Hungary," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 94-106.
    6. McKenzie, Andrew M., 2008. "AJAE Appendix: Pre-Harvest Expectations for Corn: The Informational Content of USDA Reports on New Crop Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-2.
    7. Bezuidenhout, C.N. & Singels, A., 2007. "Operational forecasting of South African sugarcane production: Part 2 - System evaluation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-3), pages 39-51, January.
    8. Michael K. Adjemian, 2012. "Quantifying the WASDE Announcement Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 238-256.
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    1. van der Velde, M. & Nisini, L., 2019. "Performance of the MARS-crop yield forecasting system for the European Union: Assessing accuracy, in-season, and year-to-year improvements from 1993 to 2015," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 203-212.
    2. Gardner, A.S. & Maclean, I.M.D. & Gaston, K.J. & Bütikofer, L., 2021. "Forecasting future crop suitability with microclimate data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).

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