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Analysing yield trends in the South African sugar industry

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  • Jones, M.R.
  • Singels, A.

Abstract

A perception exists in the South African (SA) sugar industry that sugarcane yields are declining. The objective of this study was to quantify yield decline in the SA sugar industry to inform future research and extension efforts to decrease yield gaps. Regional trends in cane yield were calculated from mill-level cane delivery and harvest area data. Benchmark simulated yields for each region were estimated by the Canesim Crop Forecasting System, using inferred harvest age and observed weather data. Actual yields were annualised to remove harvest age effects and then expressed as fractions of corresponding simulated yields, in order to remove effects of inter-seasonal variations in weather. Trends in this yield ratio (YR) were calculated for several regions and grower categories. Yield decline was defined as a decreasing trend in YR over time (1981–2010).

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, M.R. & Singels, A., 2015. "Analysing yield trends in the South African sugar industry," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 24-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:141:y:2015:i:c:p:24-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.09.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. MacNicol, R. & Ortmann, Gerald F. & Ferrer, Stuart R.D., 2007. "Perceptions of key business and financial risk by large-scale sugarcane farmers in KwaZulu-Natal in a dynamic socio-political environment," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(3), pages 1-20, September.
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    3. Bezuidenhout, C.N. & Singels, A., 2007. "Operational forecasting of South African sugarcane production: Part 2 - System evaluation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-3), pages 39-51, January.
    4. Bezuidenhout, C.N. & Singels, A., 2007. "Operational forecasting of South African sugarcane production: Part 1 - System description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-3), pages 23-38, January.
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