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Variability and limitations of maize production in Brazil: Potential yield, water-limited yield and yield gaps

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  • da S. Andrea, Maria Carolina
  • Boote, Kenneth J.
  • Sentelhas, Paulo C.
  • Romanelli, Thiago L.

Abstract

Occurrence of staple crops' yield gaps is object of study worldwide. A theoretical approach, model and statistical-based, was carried out to assess the climate-induced variability of rainfed maize yields and yield gaps in different regions in Central-Southern Brazil in both main growing seasons. A crop simulation model was used to estimate potential (Yp) and water-limited (Yw) yields through thirty crop seasons. Based on observed local farmers' averages and simulated yields, yield gaps related to water deficit (WYg) and crop management (MYg) were determined for first (sowing starting in September) and second (sowing starting in January) typical maize growing seasons. Overall higher average values of Yp and Yw (15.3 and 13.1 t ha−1, respectively) were obtained in the first when compared to second growing season (10.3 and 9.2 t ha−1, respectively). Statistical approaches pointed to similar importance between water and temperature on local biophysical limits in the scenarios. Assessed regions showed greater gaps due to crop management, with absolute averages of 5.7 and 3.2 t ha−1 in the first and second growing seasons, than gaps due to water deficit, with 2.1 and 1.2 t ha−1 in the first and second growing seasons, respectively. Opportunities for increasing average yields by closing the gaps were found to be predominantly through crop management improvements, in higher and more variable absolute levels on first than on second growing season. However, this management must be aligned with local climate, since its variability can determine relatively large gaps, even at intensively managed cropping systems. This study was able to highlight the importance of combining management, climatic and regional characteristics to provide a full perspective on main constraints of maize production increases.

Suggested Citation

  • da S. Andrea, Maria Carolina & Boote, Kenneth J. & Sentelhas, Paulo C. & Romanelli, Thiago L., 2018. "Variability and limitations of maize production in Brazil: Potential yield, water-limited yield and yield gaps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 264-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:165:y:2018:i:c:p:264-273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan A. Foley & Navin Ramankutty & Kate A. Brauman & Emily S. Cassidy & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Christine O’Connell & Deepak K. Ray & Paul C. West & Christian Balz, 2011. "Solutions for a cultivated planet," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7369), pages 337-342, October.
    2. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    2. Liu, Huan & Pequeno, Diego N.L. & Hernández-Ochoa, Ixchel M. & Krupnik, Timothy J. & Sonder, Kai & Xiong, Wei & Xu, Yinlong, 2020. "A consistent calibration across three wheat models to simulate wheat yield and phenology in China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    3. Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar, 2019. "Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 254-267.
    4. Amiri, E. & Irmak, S. & Araji, H. Ahmadzadeh, 2022. "Assessment of CERES-Maize model in simulating maize growth, yield and soil water content under rainfed, limited and full irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    5. Battisti, Rafael & Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes & Tavares, Érica Basílio & Knapp, Fábio Miguel & Bender, Fabiani Denise & Casaroli, Derblai & Alves Júnior, José, 2020. "Rules for grown soybean-maize cropping system in Midwestern Brazil: Food production and economic profits," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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