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Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases

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  • Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza
  • Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important atmospheric-oceanic phenomena, responsible for climate variability in several Brazilian regions, which affects agriculture, mainly soybean – maize off-season succession. Therefore, the ENSO impacts on soybean – maize off-season double crop system can affect global food security, since Brazil is a major player as producer of these two crops, with a total production that represents 27% and 6% of world's soybean and maize production, respectively. In order to understand the risks associated to this crop system, the aim of this study was to assess the influence of ENSO phenomenon on the spatial and temporal soybean and maize off-season yield variabilities, considering simulations with three different crop models (FAO-AZM, DSSAT and APSIM) in a multi-model approach, and to determine the best sowing windows for this production system for each ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) in different Brazilian producing regions. Previously calibrated and validated models were used to simulate soybean yields for 29 locations in 12 states, with sowing dates ranging from late September to early January of each growing season for a period of 34 years (1980–2013). The maize off-season sowing was done just after the soybean harvest, ranging from late January to early May. ENSO phases affected soybean and maize yields across the country, which can be minimized by choosing the best sowing window for soybean. In northern Brazil, El Niño negatively impacts soybean and maize off-season yields, making the succession of these crops risk, with the best sowing window being very short. Similar result was found for southern and central Brazil during La Niña years. On the contrary, cropping soybean and maize off-season in succession during El Niño years in center-south of and during La Niña years up north have higher chances of success.

Suggested Citation

  • Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar, 2019. "Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 254-267.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:173:y:2019:i:c:p:254-267
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    2. Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Fraisse, Clyde W. & Bashyal, Mahesh & Mulvaney, Michael J. & Seepaul, Ramdeo & Zientarski Karrei, Mauricio A. & Iboyi, Joseph Enye & Perondi, Daniel & Cerbaro, Vinicius, 2022. "Brassica carinata as an off-season crop in the southeastern USA: Determining optimum sowing dates based on climate risks and potential effects on summer crop yield," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Rizzo, Gonzalo & Mazzilli, Sebastian R. & Ernst, Oswaldo & Baethgen, Walter E. & Berger, Andres G., 2022. "Season-specific management strategies for rainfed soybean in the South American Pampas based on a seasonal precipitation forecast," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Battisti, Rafael & Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes & Tavares, Érica Basílio & Knapp, Fábio Miguel & Bender, Fabiani Denise & Casaroli, Derblai & Alves Júnior, José, 2020. "Rules for grown soybean-maize cropping system in Midwestern Brazil: Food production and economic profits," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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