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Investigation of Various Prediction Models of Demand on the Market of Innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Anatol’evna Derunova

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Federation, 119571,)

  • Irina Nikolayevna Filatova

    (Saratov State University, Russian Federation, 410012,)

  • Alexandr Sergeevich Semenov

    (Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Russian Federation, 117198,)

  • Vladimir Alexandrovich Derunov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Federation, 119571.)

Abstract

The formation of demand forecasting models is important in understanding the transition from the raw to the innovative model of the economy. The aim of the study is to analyze and evaluate the different innovation demand forecasting models and the mathematical substantiation of the directions of their development. On the basis of the Bass model, we explore forecasting the spread of innovative products with the addition of such factors as prices, advertising, and market potential for the purpose of application of applied models in assessing the demand for high-tech products at the market launch of innovative products. Mathematical justification of the problem of demand for high-tech products presented in the context of the theory of diffusion of innovation and developed technique in forecasting of high-tech products sales, which allows in calculating the number of purchases to a specific point in time. Amodel for innovation demand prediction by logistic regression, which can improve the classification of consumer preferences of high-tech products.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Anatol’evna Derunova & Irina Nikolayevna Filatova & Alexandr Sergeevich Semenov & Vladimir Alexandrovich Derunov, 2017. "Investigation of Various Prediction Models of Demand on the Market of Innovations," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 112-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ3:2017-01-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.
    4. Elena Derunova & Alexandr Semenov & Olga Balash & Anna Firsova, 2016. "The Mechanisms of Formation of Demand in the High-Tech Products Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 96-102.
    5. Arkhipova, Marina & Aleksandrova, Elena, 2014. "Study of the relationship between innovation and export activity of Russian firms," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 36(4), pages 88-101.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation; Sales Forecast; Marketing High-tech Products; Consumer Behavior; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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