IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2017-02-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario Forecast for Wind Turbine Manufacturing in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Svetlana Valerievna Ratner

    (V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia,)

  • Vladislav Valerievich Klochkov

    (V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)

Abstract

In this paper we suggest a method of evaluation of the prospects of creating and developing a wind energy-engineering sector in Russia, which is oriented, primarily, on domestic needs. Using the concept of learning curves as a framework, we evaluate the possible volumes of production of green energy equipment in Russia and prospects of competitiveness of such industries. Analysis of documents which determine the future development of Russian energy shows market share of Russian manufactures will be significantly lower than that of most wind energy equipment manufacturers, and wouldn t allow for a competitive level of costs and prices of Russian wind energy equipment. In the initial stages of domestic development of wind energy equipment, the average labor productivity may make up around 70-90% of the level of worldwide leaders, however this loss in productivity can be offset by tax benefits, which would stimulate entrepreneurs to localize their productions in Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Valerievna Ratner & Vladislav Valerievich Klochkov, 2017. "Scenario Forecast for Wind Turbine Manufacturing in Russia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 144-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2017-02-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/4222/2727
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/4222/2727
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dye, Richard F. & Merriman, David F., 2000. "The Effects of Tax Increment Financing on Economic Development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 306-328, March.
    2. Tooraj Jamasb, 2007. "Technical Change Theory and Learning Curves: Patterns of Progress in Electricity Generation Technologies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(3), pages 51-72, July.
    3. Liu, Wen-Qiang & Gan, Lin & Zhang, Xi-Liang, 2002. "Cost-competitive incentives for wind energy development in China: institutional dynamics and policy changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 753-765, July.
    4. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, October.
    5. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Lu Huang & Yan Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01070417, HAL.
    6. McDonald, Alan & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2001. "Learning rates for energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 255-261, March.
    7. Sabine Messner, 1997. "Endogenized technological learning in an energy systems model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 291-313.
    8. D.K. Robinson & Lu Huang & Ying Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01071140, HAL.
    9. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, October.
    10. Schaper-Rinkel, Petra, 2013. "The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 444-452.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anastasia Salnikova & Yuri Chepurko & Nadezhda Starkova & Hi?n Nguy?n Ho ng, 2019. "External Effects of Renewable Energy Projects: Life Cycle Analysis-based Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 256-262.
    2. Svetlana Ratner & Konstantin Gomonov & Svetlana Revinova & Inna Lazanyuk, 2020. "Energy Saving Potential of Industrial Solar Collectors in Southern Regions of Russia: The Case of Krasnodar Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Valeriy V. Iosifov & Evgenii Yu. Khrustalev & Sergey N. Larin & Oleg E. Khrustalev, 2020. "Strategic Planning of Regional Energy System Based on Life Cycle Assessment Methodology," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 62-68.
    4. Valeriy Victorovich Iosifov & Nairuhi Akopovna Almastyan & Alessandro Figus & Yuri Chepurko & Nguy?n Ho ng Hi?n & Marina Alexandrovna Krotova, 2017. "The problem of Harmonizing the Environmental Priorities of Electricity Generating Companies and Regional Socio-Economic Systems: DEA-based Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 159-165.
    5. Leonid Sorokin & Svetlana Balashova & Konstantin Gomonov & Ksenia Belyaeva, 2023. "Exploring the Relationship between Crude Oil Prices and Renewable Energy Production: Evidence from the USA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    6. Vladimir M. Matyushok & Anastasiia V. Sinelnikova & Sergey B. Matyushok & Diana Pamela Chavarry Galvez, 2024. "Carbon Capture and Storage in Hydrogen Production: World Experience and Growth of Export Opportunities of the Russian Hydrogen Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 507-516, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    2. Zhang, Shuwei & Bauer, Nico & Yin, Guangzhi & Xie, Xi, 2020. "Technology learning and diffusion at the global and local scales: A modeling exercise in the REMIND model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Mercure, J.-F. & Pollitt, H. & Chewpreecha, U. & Salas, P. & Foley, A.M. & Holden, P.B. & Edwards, N.R., 2014. "The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 686-700.
    4. Paul Lehmann & Patrik Söderholm, 2018. "Can Technology-Specific Deployment Policies Be Cost-Effective? The Case of Renewable Energy Support Schemes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 475-505, October.
    5. Handayani, Kamia & Krozer, Yoram & Filatova, Tatiana, 2019. "From fossil fuels to renewables: An analysis of long-term scenarios considering technological learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 134-146.
    6. Bossink, Bart, 2020. "Learning strategies in sustainable energy demonstration projects: What organizations learn from sustainable energy demonstrations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. van Blommestein, Kevin & Daim, Tugrul U. & Cho, Yonghee & Sklar, Paul, 2018. "Structuring financial incentives for residential solar electric systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 28-40.
    8. Mercure, Jean-François, 2012. "FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 799-811.
    9. Karali, Nihan & Park, Won Young & McNeil, Michael, 2017. "Modeling technological change and its impact on energy savings in the U.S. iron and steel sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 447-458.
    10. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2021. "Improving the analytical framework for quantifying technological progress in energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Gladkykh, Ganna & Spittler, Nathalie & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur & Diemer, Arnaud, 2018. "Steady state of energy: Feedbacks and leverages for promoting or preventing sustainable energy system development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 121-131.
    12. Wang, Nan & Mogi, Gento, 2017. "Deregulation, market competition, and innovation of utilities: Evidence from Japanese electric sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 403-413.
    13. Anne-Maree Dowd & Michelle Rodriguez & Talia Jeanneret, 2015. "Social Science Insights for the BioCCS Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-19, May.
    14. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Tilmann Rave, 2013. "Innovationsindikatoren zum globalen Klimaschutz – FuE-Ausgaben und Patente," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(15), pages 34-41, August.
    16. Coccia, Mario & Wang, Lili, 2015. "Path-breaking directions of nanotechnology-based chemotherapy and molecular cancer therapy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 155-169.
    17. Daniel Moran & Richard Wood, 2014. "Convergence Between The Eora, Wiod, Exiobase, And Openeu'S Consumption-Based Carbon Accounts," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 245-261, September.
    18. Lykke E. Andersen & Luis Carlos Jemio, 2016. "Decentralization and poverty reduction in Bolivia: Challenges and opportunities," Development Research Working Paper Series 01/2016, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    19. Chen, Han & Huang, Ye & Shen, Huizhong & Chen, Yilin & Ru, Muye & Chen, Yuanchen & Lin, Nan & Su, Shu & Zhuo, Shaojie & Zhong, Qirui & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Tao, Shu, 2016. "Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 820-829.
    20. Inglesi-Lotz, Roula, 2017. "Social rate of return to R&D on various energy technologies: Where should we invest more? A study of G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 521-525.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Equipment Machine-building; Productivity; Learning-by-doing Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2017-02-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.