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Forecasting Stock Market Realized Volatility using Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Lamine Diane

    (Commerce Faculty, University of Cape Town, South Africa)

  • Pradeep Brijlal

    (Commerce Faculty, University of Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract

Volatility is often used as a key input into several financial models, yet there is still no consensus on the best-performing model in forecasting stock market returns volatility. Conventional time series models such as GARCH are the preferred models in the literature. However, this project aims to first adopt two novel non-linear machine learning algorithms, namely the Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The project then compares the performance of these two models in predicting stock market realized volatility for the JSE Basic Material Index (JBIND) and the JSE Financials Index (JFIN) over a period of five years. Based on the results of the project, the Random Forest model outperformed the ANN model for both the JFIN and JBIND index. Lastly, the COVID effect on the model’s performance was also considered and the results show that the negative impact of COVID on the model’s performance is ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamine Diane & Pradeep Brijlal, 2024. "Forecasting Stock Market Realized Volatility using Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 5-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2024-02-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Selamet Herman Cipto & Endri Endri & Yono Haryono & Dhanang Hartanto, 2024. "Islamic Stock Indices and COVID-19: Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 83-88, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Realized Volatility; Random Forest; Artificial Neural Network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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