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Monthly GDP Growth Estimates for the U.S. States

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Listed:
  • Gary Koop
  • Stuart McIntyre
  • James Mitchell
  • Aristeidis Raftapostolos

Abstract

This paper develops a mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model to produce nowcasts and historical estimates of monthly real state-level GDP for the 50 U.S. states, plus Washington DC, from 1964 through the present day. The MF-VAR model incorporates state and U.S. data at the monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Temporal and cross-sectional constraints are imposed to ensure that the monthly state-level estimates are consistent with official estimates of quarterly GDP at the U.S. and state-levels. We illustrate the utility of the historical estimates in better understanding state business cycles and cross-state dependencies. We show how the model produces accurate nowcasts of state GDP three months ahead of the BEA's quarterly estimates, after conditioning on the latest estimates of U.S. GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aristeidis Raftapostolos, 2025. "Monthly GDP Growth Estimates for the U.S. States," Papers 2501.04607, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.04607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    2. Ankargren, Sebastian & Jonéus, Paulina, 2021. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 97-113.
    3. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2022. "A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
    5. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March.
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