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Nowcasting GDP growth using data reduction methods: Evidence for the French economy

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Darne

    (LEMNA, University of Nantes)

  • Amelie Charles

    (Audencia Business School)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose bridge models to nowcast French gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate. The bridge models, allowing economic interpretations, are specified by using a machine learning approach via Lasso-based regressions and by an econometric approach based on an automatic general-to-specific procedure. These approaches allow to select explanatory variables among a large data set of soft data. A recursive forecast study is carried out to assess the forecasting performance. It turns out that the bridge models constructed using the both variable-selection approaches outperform benchmark models and give similar performance in the out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Finally, the combined forecasts of these both approaches display interesting forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Darne & Amelie Charles, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP growth using data reduction methods: Evidence for the French economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2431-2439.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00680
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP forecasting; shrinkage methods; general-to-specific approach; bridge models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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