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The Impact of Textual Sentiment on Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone Crisis

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  • Sha Liu

    (University of Southampton, UK)

Abstract

This study examines the relation between textual sentiment (media pessimism), the concentration/volume of news, and sovereign bond yield spreads, specifically in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain during the European sovereign debt crisis from 2009 to 2012. The findings suggest that higher media pessimism and greater concentration/volume of news collectively communicate additional value-relevant information that has not been quantified by traditional determinants of yield spreads. If higher media pessimism is coupled with greater concentration/volume of news and other factors remain unchanged, yield spreads would move upwards, causing prices to fall. Media pessimism and the number of news stories respectively and collectively help predict the widening of yield spreads. Higher media pessimism level is strongly associated with more news stories being reported, suggesting that “no news is good news.”

Suggested Citation

  • Sha Liu, 2014. "The Impact of Textual Sentiment on Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone Crisis," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 18(3-4), pages 215-248, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:18:y:2014:i:3-4:p:215-248
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    Cited by:

    1. Consoli, Sergio & Pezzoli, Luca Tiozzo & Tosetti, Elisa, 2021. "Emotions in macroeconomic news and their impact on the European bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Nicky J. Ferguson & Dennis Philip & Herbert Y. T. Lam & Jie Michael Guo, 2015. "Media Content and Stock Returns: The Predictive Power of Press," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Sergio Consoli & Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli & Elisa Tosetti, 2022. "Neural forecasting of the Italian sovereign bond market with economic news," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S2), pages 197-224, December.
    4. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2021. "Examining the effects of news and media sentiments on volatility and correlation: Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 280-297.
    5. Nicola Nones, 2024. "The Greek crisis as a “morality tale†? An empirical assessment," European Union Politics, , vol. 25(2), pages 291-312, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    textual sentiment; media pessimism; information supply; sovereign bond yield spreads; European sovereign debt crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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