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Anticipating correlations between EUAs and CERs: a Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model

Author

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  • Julien Chevallier

    (Université Paris Dauphine)

Abstract

Previous literature has studied the empirical characteristics of European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) time series by using vector autoregression, impulse response function, and cointegration analysis (Chevallier (2010)). This paper extends the analysis by modelling the inter-relationships between EUAs and CERs in a multivariate GARCH econometric framework, so as to reflect the dynamics of the correlations between the variables overtime. Using the DCC MGARCH model by Engle and Sheppard (2001) and Engle (2002) on daily data from March 09, 2007 to January 26, 2010, we confirm the presence of strong ARCH and GARCH effects. Besides, we provide strong empirical evidence of time-varying correlations in the range of [0.01;0.90] between EUAs and CERs that have not been considered by previous studies. Thus, our study shows that the correlations between EUAs and CERs extracted from the DCC MGARCH model appear as a useful tool to comprehend the nature of the inter-relationships between these two markets, and to reach optimal risk management, portfolio selection, and hedging as called by Engle (2009).

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Anticipating correlations between EUAs and CERs: a Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 255-272.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00628
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Theodoros Syriopoulos & Efthymios Roumpis & Michael Tsatsaronis, 2023. "Hedging Strategies in Carbon Emission Price Dynamics: Implications for Shipping Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-27, September.
    2. Sama Haddad, 2023. "Global Financial Market Integration: A Literature Survey," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-27, November.
    3. Meng, Bin & Chen, Shuiyang & Haralambides, Hercules & Kuang, Haibo & Fan, Lidong, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7938 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Karishma Ansaram & Paolo Mazza, 2024. "Dependence Structure among Carbon Markets around the World: New Evidence from GARCH-Copula Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 237-260, March.
    6. Jongmin Yu & Mindy L. Mallory, 2020. "Carbon price interaction between allocated permits and generated offsets," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 671-700, June.
    7. Nimisha Kapoor, 2013. "Modelling Daily CER Price Volatility in European Energy Exchange: Evidence from MSARIMA-EGARCH Model," Vision, , vol. 17(4), pages 279-284, December.
    8. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    9. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "EUAs and CERs: Interactions in a Markov regime-switching environment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 86-101.
    10. Cao, Guangxi & Xu, Wei, 2016. "Multifractal features of EUA and CER futures markets by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis based on empirical model decomposition," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 212-222.
    11. Hieronymi, Philipp & Schüller, David, 2015. "The Clean-Development Mechanism, stochastic permit prices and energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 25-36.
    12. Karishma Ansaram & Paolo Mazza, 2022. "Dependence structure among carbon markets around the world: New evidence from GARCH-copula analysis," Working Papers 2022-ACF-03, IESEG School of Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EUAs; CERs; Multivariate GARCH; Time-Varying Correlation; DCC-MGARCH Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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