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State Revenue Cyclicality

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  • Dye, Richard F.

Abstract

How are major state revenue sources affected by the business cycle? Could changing the mix of taxes mitigate the severity of cyclical budget problems? This paper examines issues in estimating and interpreting the short–run elasticity of taxes with respect to personal income. Recent literature implies that, on average, state personal income taxes and sales taxes have very similar short–run elasticities, suggesting that changing the tax mix would have little overall impact on revenue variability. However, cross–state variations around those averages are considerable and specification matters, suggesting that there are no easy or general answers to the framing questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dye, Richard F., 2004. "State Revenue Cyclicality," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 57(1), pages 133-145, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:57:y:2004:i:1:p:133-45
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2004.1.07
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Clemens & Benedic Ippolito, 2018. "Implications of Medicaid Financing Reform for State Government Budgets," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 135-172.
    2. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Fotini Economou & Ioanna Kountouri & Yannis Panagopoulos & Georgia Skintzi & Ekaterini Tsouma, 2022. "Estimating excise tax revenue elasticity and buoyancy for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4557-4576, August.
    4. Gjerde, Kathy Paulson & Prescott, Peter & Rice, Jennifer, 2019. "The Impact of State Fiscal Policy on States' Resilience Entering the Great Recession," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), January.
    5. Alison Felix, 2008. "The growth and volatility of state tax revenue sources in the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q III), pages 63-88.
    6. Yilin Hou, 2005. "Fiscal Reserves and State Own-Source Expenditure in Downturn Years," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(1), pages 117-144, January.
    7. Howard Chernick & Cordelia Reimers & Jennifer Tennant, 2014. "Tax structure and revenue instability: the Great Recession and the states," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Craig, Steven G. & Hoang, Edward C., 2011. "State government response to income fluctuations: Consumption, insurance, and capital expenditures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 343-351, July.
    9. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
    10. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "The growth and variability of local taxes: An application to the Italian regions," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1601, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    11. repec:aei:rpaper:1008570714 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Ünal, 2023. "Estimating policy-corrected long-term and short-term tax elasticities for the USA, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 465-504, January.
    13. Evgeny N. Timushev & Vita A. Yagovkina, 2023. "Reserve Funds in Russian Regions: Factors of Formation and Efficiency Assessment," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 61-78, October.
    14. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "The short- and long-run tax revenue response to changes in tax bases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1960-1970.

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