IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-05o50002.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Claude Maswana

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University)

Abstract

The determination of the causal pattern among inflation, money growth, and exchange rate has important implications for policymakers regarding appropriate stabilization policies in developing economies. Using Congolese data where the pace of broad money growth and hyperinflation (23,760% annual change) reached record levels in early 1990s, we use single-equation multivariate autoregressive models with the optimal lag selected using Hsiao's approach to Granger causality. Results indicate feedback causality between inflation and money growth on one side, and unidirectional Granger causality from money growth to the exchange rate and from the exchange rate to inflation on the other. These results suggest that the over-riding goal of disinflation needs to be accomplished initially by exchange rate stabilization, followed by a direct inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Claude Maswana, 2005. "Assessing the Money, Exchange Rate, Price Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(19), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05o50002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2005/Volume15/EB-05O50002A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was There Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the Eve of Emu? the German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 185-207, November.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Mathías Vernengo, 2007. "Money and Inflation," Chapters, in: Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics, chapter 28, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Webb, Steven B, 1985. "Government Debt and Inflationary Expectations as Determinants of the Money Supply in Germany, 1919-23," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 479-492, November.
    6. Burdekin, Richard C. K. & Burkett, Paul, 1996. "Hyperinflation, the exchange rate and endogenous money: post-World War I Germany revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 599-621, August.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Matias Vernengo, 2005. "Money and Inflation: A Taxonomy," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2005_14, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    9. Cheng, Benjamin S. & Lai, Tin Wei, 1997. "An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 435-444, October.
    10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    11. Mr. Elie Canetti & Mr. Joshua E. Greene, 1991. "Monetary Growth and Exchange Rate Depreciation As Causes of Inflation in African Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 1991/067, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Autoregressive modeling and causal ordering of economic variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 243-259, November.
    14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    15. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2020. "A Note on the Competing Causes of High Inflation in Bulgaria during the 1990s: Money Supply or Exchange Rate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 433-443, July.
    2. Zelealem Yiheyis & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2016. "Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Output Growth: The Case of Malawi," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(10), pages 23-39, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:19:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    3. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    4. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    5. Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
    6. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2006. "An empirical investigation around the finance-growth puzzle in China with a particular focus on causality and efficiency considerations," MPRA Paper 3946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    7. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    8. Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
    9. P. Srinivasan & Inder Siddanth Ravindra, 2015. "Causality among Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission, Economic Growth and Trade," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(3), pages 168-189, August.
    10. Chee-Keong Choong & Wai-Ching Poon & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Zulkornain Yusop, 2003. "The Validity of PPP Theory in ASEAN-Five: Another Look on Cointegration and Panel Data Analysis," International Trade 0309018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. E. Schirru, 1996. "Modelli di determinazione del tasso di cambio: un'analisi di cointegrazione," Working Paper CRENoS 199610, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    12. Gregory Birg & Brian M. Lucey, 2006. "Integration of smaller European equity markets: a time-varying integration score analysis," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 395-400.
    13. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "An aggregate import demand function for India: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 607-613.
    14. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    15. Thomas Gries & Manfred Kraft & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Financial deepening, trade openness and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4729-4739.
    16. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.
    17. Houssem Eddine Chebbi, 2010. "Long and Short–Run Linkages Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Tunisia," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 139-158, January.
    18. Stefka Slavova, 2003. "Money demand during hyperinflation and stabilization: Bulgaria, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1303-1316.
    19. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "Trade liberalization and industrial growth in Pakistan: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1421-1429.
    20. Efthymios Tsionas, 2001. "Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 689-696.
    21. Xuan Hoi Bui, 2020. "An Investigation of the Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Vietnam," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 415-421.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05o50002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.