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World population aging as a function of period demographic conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Fernandes

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG))

  • Eduardo L.G. Rios Neto

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG))

  • Cássio M. Turra

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG))

Abstract

Background: Population aging is a fundamental element of the demographic transition. In the absence of births, deaths, and migration, the mean age of any population will increase one year per calendar year. The intensity of period birth, death, and migration conditions (i.e., their crude rates and the difference between their mean age and the mean age of the population) either lessen or strengthen this natural tendency of populations to age. Objective: We investigate the contribution of births, deaths, and migration to population aging across the globe from 1950 to 2100. We examine whether a concerted pattern of population aging is associated with changes in period demographic conditions. Methods: We apply a mathematical expression proposed by Preston, Himes, and Eggers (1989) that decomposes the rate of change in the mean age of a population according to period demographic conditions. We use the 2022 revision of the United Nations population estimates and projections covering 236 countries or areas. Results: During the demographic transition, population aging follows a general concerted pattern characterized by five distinct stages. Populations age because of declining inflows (births) at age zero and insufficient outflows (deaths) at older ages. Overall, migration does not play a pivotal role but can be more relevant in specific countries or regions. Contribution: Our study combines long-time series data for most countries in the world with an elegant mathematical solution proposed by Preston, Himes, and Eggers (1989) to empirically measure the dynamics of population aging according to period demographic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Fernandes & Eduardo L.G. Rios Neto & Cássio M. Turra, 2023. "World population aging as a function of period demographic conditions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(13), pages 353-372.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:48:y:2023:i:13
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Cosmo Strozza & Graziella Caselli & Viviana Egidi & Maria Rita Testa, 2024. "Ageing and diversity: Inequalities in longevity and health in low-mortality countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(12), pages 347-376.
    3. Markus Dörflinger & Elke Loichinger, 2024. "Fertility decline, changes in age structure, and the potential for demographic dividends: A global analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(9), pages 221-290.
    4. Takashi Inoue & Nozomu Inoue, 2024. "The Future Process of Japan’s Population Aging: A Cluster Analysis Using Small Area Population Projection Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-26, August.
    5. Inaihá Laureano Benincá & Maria Gattuso & Stefania Butti & Davide Caccia & Francesca Morganti, 2024. "Emotional Status, Motor Dysfunction, and Cognitive Functioning as Predictors of Quality of Life in Physically Engaged Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(11), pages 1-12, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population; aging; demographic transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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