IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v37y2021i1d10.1007_s10680-020-09567-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Use of Counterfactual Population Projections for Assessing the Demographic Determinants of Population Ageing

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Murphy

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

Counterfactual population projections have been used to estimate the contributions of fertility and mortality to population ageing, a method recently designated as the gold standard for this purpose. We analyse projections with base years between 1850 and 1950 for 11 European countries with long-run demographic data series to estimate the robustness of this approach. We link this approach with stable population theory to derive quantitative indicators of the role of fertility and mortality; consider ways of incorporating net migration; and examine the effect of using alternative indicators of population ageing. A number of substantive and technical weaknesses in the counterfactual projection approach are identified: (1) the conclusions are very sensitive to the choice of base year. Specifically, the level of base year fertility has a major influence on whether fertility or mortality is considered the main driver of population ageing. (2) The method is not transitive: results for two adjacent intervals are unrelated to results for the combined period. Therefore, overall results cannot be usefully allocated between different sub-intervals. (3) Different ageing indices tend to produce similar qualitative conclusions, but quantitative results may differ markedly. (4) Comparisons of alternative models should be with a fixed fertility and mortality projection model rather than with the baseline values as usually done. (5) The standard counterfactual projections approach concatenates the effects of initial age structure and subsequent fertility and mortality rates: methods to separate these components are derived.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Murphy, 2021. "Use of Counterfactual Population Projections for Assessing the Demographic Determinants of Population Ageing," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 211-242, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:37:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-020-09567-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-020-09567-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-020-09567-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-020-09567-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir Shkolnikov & Alexander Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, healthy life expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total fertility rat," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(14), pages 499-522.
    2. Tommy Bengtsson & Kirk Scott, 2011. "Population Aging and the Future of the Welfare State: The Example of Sweden," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 158-170, January.
    3. Frank W. Notestein, 1960. "Mortality, Fertility, the Size-Age Distribution, and the Growth Rate," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 261-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shiro Horiuchi & John Wilmoth & Scott Pletcher, 2008. "A decomposition method based on a model of continuous change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(4), pages 785-801, November.
    5. Samuel Preston & Christine Himes & Mitchell Eggers, 1989. "Demographic Conditions Responsible for Population Aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 691-704, November.
    6. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
    7. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alyson A. van Raalte & Evgeny M. Andreev, 2017. "Decomposing Current Mortality Differences Into Initial Differences and Differences in Trends: The Contour Decomposition Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1579-1602, August.
    8. Michael Murphy, 2017. "Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(2), pages 257-283, June.
    9. Hal Caswell & Nora Sánchez Gassen, 2015. "The sensitivity analysis of population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(28), pages 801-840.
    10. W. Arthur, 1982. "The Ergodic Theorems of Demography: a Simple Proof," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(4), pages 439-445, November.
    11. Ronald Lee & Yi Zhou, 2017. "Does Fertility or Mortality Drive Contemporary Population Aging? The Revisionist View Revisited," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(2), pages 285-301, June.
    12. Juha Alho, 2008. "Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(3), pages 641-650, August.
    13. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Z. Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total ," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Michael Murphy, 2016. "The Impact of Migration on Long-Term European Population Trends, 1850 to Present," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(2), pages 225-244, June.
    15. Samuel H. Preston & Andrew Stokes, 2012. "Sources of Population Aging in More and Less Developed Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(2), pages 221-236, June.
    16. Pietro Cerone, 1987. "On Stable Population Theory With Immigration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(3), pages 431-438, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lixuan Chen & Tianyu Mu & Xiuting Li & Jichang Dong, 2022. "Population Prediction of Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities Based on Multiple Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Jungsuk Kim & Cynthia Castillejos Petalcorin & Donghyun Park & Shu Tian, 2023. "Determinants of the Elderly Share of Population: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 941-957, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murphy, Michael J., 2021. "Use of counterfactual population projections for assessing the demographic determinants of population ageing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106185, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Tianyu Shen & Collin Payne, 2021. "The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(44), pages 1073-1084.
    3. Agnieszka Fihel & Anna Janicka & Weronika Kloc-Nowak, 2018. "The direct and indirect impact of international migration on the population ageing process: A formal analysis and its application to Poland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(43), pages 1303-1338.
    4. Kim, Hyun Kyung & Lee, Sang-Hyop, 2021. "The effects of population aging on South Korea’s economy: The National Transfer Accounts approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alyson A. van Raalte & Evgeny M. Andreev, 2017. "Decomposing Current Mortality Differences Into Initial Differences and Differences in Trends: The Contour Decomposition Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1579-1602, August.
    6. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.
    7. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny M. Andreev, 2017. "The decomposition of the difference between two healthy life expectancies: which formula is right?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram & Soneji, Samir, 2011. "A unifying framework for assessing changes in life expectancy associated with changes in mortality: The case of violent deaths," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 38-48.
    9. Nikkil Sudharsanan & Maarten J. Bijlsma, 2019. "A generalized counterfactual approach to decomposing differences between populations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Samuel H. Preston & Yana C. Vierboom, 2021. "The Changing Age Distribution of the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 527-539, June.
    11. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, 2014. "Assessment of cross-sectional and longitudinal components of a difference with an algorithm of contour replacement," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2014-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Qi Cui & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Heather Booth, 2019. "The Mechanism Underlying Change in the Sex Gap in Life Expectancy at Birth: An Extended Decomposition," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2307-2321, December.
    13. Marina Vergeles, 2021. "Evolution Of Sex Gap In Life Expectancy Across High-Income Countries: Universal Patterns And Country-Specific Attributes," HSE Working papers WP BRP 98/SOC/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    14. Audrey Ugarte & Onofre Alves Simões, 2020. "Breaking Life Expectancy into Small Pieces," Working Papers REM 2020/0154, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Faragó, Miklós, 2011. "Paritásfüggő összetett termékenységi mutatók Magyarországon és különbségeik dekompozíciója [Parity-dependent complex indicators of fertility in Hungary and decomposition of differences between them," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 970-993.
    16. Virginia Zarulli & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen & James W. Vaupel, 2020. "Onset of the old-age gender gap in survival," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(25), pages 727-740.
    17. Jonathan Fox & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Urban fertility responses to local government programs: Evidence from the 1923-1932 U.S," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(16), pages 487-532.
    18. Glenn Firebaugh & Francesco Acciai & Aggie Noah & Christopher J Prather & Claudia Nau, 2014. "Why the racial gap in life expectancy is declining in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(32), pages 975-1006.
    19. Per Kragh Andersen & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Niels Keiding, 2013. "Cause-specific measures of life years lost," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(41), pages 1127-1152.
    20. Vladimir Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Zhen Zhang & James Oeppen & James Vaupel, 2011. "Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 211-239, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:37:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-020-09567-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.