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On the contribution of foreign-born populations to overall population change in Europe: Methodological insights and contemporary evidence for 31 European countries

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  • Christos Bagavos

    (Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences)

Abstract

Background: Within the context of significant migration flows, persisting low fertility settings, and population ageing in more developed areas, increased focus has been placed on the impact of migration on population change in receiving countries. Objective: This paper examines the contributions of migrants and natives to population change in 31 European countries for the 2014–2019 period. Methods: Based on a standardisation method, we provide evidence derived from births, deaths, and net migration for the size and diversity of the contributions to overall population change of the two population groups. Results: The results show that the foreign-born population has been the driving force behind overall population change in Europe, as this population has attenuated overall population decline; turned the expected population decline into population growth; or, less frequently, accelerated population growth. Additionally, the differences between countries in the indirect effect of the foreign-born population on population change have been driven more by the differences in the population age structure of migrants than by the timing and level of fertility or by the level of mortality among migrants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the contribution of the foreign-born population to overall population change in Europe has been pronounced and goes far beyond the contribution of net migration, the commonly used indicator for measuring the effect of the foreign-born population on population change. Contribution: The study provides empirical evidence as regards the increasing importance of foreign-born population for population change in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Bagavos, 2022. "On the contribution of foreign-born populations to overall population change in Europe: Methodological insights and contemporary evidence for 31 European countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(7), pages 179-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:46:y:2022:i:7
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(9), pages 225-248.
    2. Joop Beer & James Raymer & Rob Erf & Leo Wissen, 2010. "Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe [Surmonter les problèmes d’incohérences des données sur les migrations internationales:," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 459-481, November.
    3. Christos Bagavos, 2019. "On the multifaceted impact of migration on the fertility of receiving countries: Methodological insights and contemporary evidence for Europe, the United States, and Australia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(1), pages 1-36.
    4. F. Landis MacKellar & Geoffrey McNicoll, 2019. "International Migration: Approaches, Issues, Policies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), December.
    5. Pervi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2008. "Immigrant-Native Fertility and Mortality Differentials in the United States," Working Papers wp181, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    6. James Robards & Ann Berrington, 2016. "The fertility of recent migrants to England and Wales," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(36), pages 1037-1052.
    7. David Coleman, 2008. "The demographic effects of international migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 453-477, Autumn.
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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Benassi & Annalisa Busetta & Gerardo Gallo & Manuela Stranges, 2023. "Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 311-338.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international migration; population change; age structure; standardization; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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