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Technological change, population dynamics, and natural resource depletion

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  • Schäfer, Andreas

Abstract

In this paper, we integrate fertility and educational choices into a scale-invariant model of directed technological change with non-renewable natural resources, in order to reveal the interaction between population dynamics, technological change, and natural resource depletion. In line with empirical regularities, skill-biased technological change induces a decline in population growth and a transitory increase in the depletion rate of natural resources. In the long-run, the depletion rate also declines in the skill intensity. A decline in population growth is harmful for long-run productivity growth, if R&D is subject to diminishing technological opportunities. The effectiveness of economic policies aimed at sustained economic growth thus hinges on its impact on long-run population growth given the sign of intertemporal spillovers in R&D with respect to existing technological knowledge. We demonstrate that an increase in relative research productivities or an education subsidy enhances long-run growth, if R&D is subject to diminishing technological opportunities, while an increase in the teacher–student ratio is preferable in terms of positive intertemporal knowledge spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Schäfer, Andreas, 2014. "Technological change, population dynamics, and natural resource depletion," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 122-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:71:y:2014:i:c:p:122-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2014.06.001
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    1. Neves, Pedro Cunha & Afonso, Óscar & Sequeira, Tiago Neves, 2018. "Population growth and the wage skill premium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 435-449.

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