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Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden

Author

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  • Philippe Bocquier

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Rafael Costa

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussels)

Abstract

Background: Several theories compete to explain the main drivers of urbanisation, past and present, in relation to both demographic transition and economic development. One hypothesis is that rural-to-urban migration is the driver of urbanisation; another is that urban mortality decline actually triggered urban transition. Objective: This paper reconsiders the relationship between demographic (vital) migration and urban transitions by analysing the long-term contribution of natural and migratory movements to urban transition. The respective contributions of birth, death, and migration and their timing will indicate whether economic development, through labour force migration, or vital transition mainly determines urban transition. Methods: After examining the spatial dimension of the demographic transition theory, we use 19th and 20th century series on Sweden and Belgium to better identify the migration component of urban transition through the computation of growth difference between urban and rural areas, accounting for the often neglected reclassification effect. Results: In both Sweden and Belgium, migration is the direct or indirect (through reclassification) engine of urban transition and its contribution precedes the onset of vital transition, while the vital transition has a secondary, unstable, and negative role in the urban transition. Conclusions: Changes in the economic sphere are reinstated as the underlying cause of population change, acting through the shift of human capital in space. Methodological consequences are then drawn for analysing vital and urban transitions in an increasingly interdependent world. Contribution: The paper contributes to the theoretical literature on urban and demographic transitions in relation to economic development. The proposed method evaluates migration contribution without having to measure it.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bocquier & Rafael Costa, 2015. "Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(48), pages 1297-1332.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:33:y:2015:i:48
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.48
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    4. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    5. Marc Luy & Bernhard Köppen, 2018. "“Express transitioning” as a special case of the demographic transition," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 235-257.
    6. Gianluca Egidi & Giovanni Quaranta & Luca Salvati & Rosanna Salvia & Gimenez Morera Antonio, 2021. "Investigating density-dependent patterns of population growth in Southern Italy, 1861–2019," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, April.
    7. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Stefano Poponi & Ahmed Alhuseen & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Uncovering Demographic Trends and Recent Urban Expansion in Metropolitan Regions: A Paradigmatic Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, May.
    8. Bryan Jones & Deborah Balk & Stefan Leyk, 2020. "Urban Change in the United States, 1990–2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Philippe Bocquier & Ashira Menashe-Oren & Wanli Nie, 2023. "Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from Africa and Asia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(24), pages 681-732.
    10. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    11. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Brée, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    12. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.
    13. Mathias Lerch, 2020. "International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 557-582, September.
    14. Mariateresa Ciommi & Gianluca Egidi & Ioannis Vardopoulos & Francesco Maria Chelli & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Toward a ‘Migrant Trap’? Local Development, Urban Sustainability, Sociodemographic Inequalities, and the Economic Decline in a Mediterranean Metropolis," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Kostas Rontos & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Mattia Gianvincenzi & Simona Moretti & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Toward a Spatially Segregated Urban Growth? Austerity, Poverty, and the Demographic Decline of Metropolitan Greece," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, March.
    16. Luca Salvati, 2020. "Demographic Dynamics, Urban Cycles and Economic Downturns: A Long-term Investigation of a Metropolitan Region in Europe, 1956–2016," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(3), pages 549-575, June.
    17. Ashira Menashe‐Oren & Philippe Bocquier, 2021. "Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 639-663, September.
    18. Luca Salvati, 2020. "Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 165-186, August.
    19. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2016. "Rural exodus and fertility at the time of industrialization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    20. Ana Grdoviæ Gnip, 2023. "The determinants of regional migration in Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 41(2), pages 427-448.
    21. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Bogdana Nosova & Rosario Turco & Massimiliano Giacalone & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    22. Federico Benassi & Maria Carella, 2023. "Modelling geographical variations in fertility and population density of Italian and foreign populations at the local scale: a spatial Durbin approach for Italy (2002–2018)," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2147-2164, June.
    23. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic transition; urban transition; migration; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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