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The Role of Migration in the Urban Transition: A Demonstration From Albania

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  • Mathias Lerch

Abstract

Although natural increase has been recognized as the main driver of postwar urban growth in developing countries, urban transition theory predicts a dominant role for population mobility in the early and late phases of the process. To account for this discrepancy between theory and empirical evidence, I demonstrate the complex role played by internal and international migration in the pattern of urban growth. Using a combination of indirect demographic estimations for postwar Albania, I show that the dominant contribution of natural increase from the 1960s to the 1990s was induced by a limited urban in-migration; this was due to the restrictions on leaving the countryside imposed under communist rule and, thereafter, to the redirection abroad of rural out-migrants. Although young adults in cities also engaged in international movements and significantly reduced their fertility, the indirect effects of rural-to-urban migration attenuated the fall in urban birth rates and postponed demographic aging. In-migrants swelled urban cohorts of reproductive age and delayed the urban fertility transition. Despite a high level of urban natural increase in Albania, I thus conclude that the role of population mobility dominated in the early and most recent phases of urban growth. The results also have implications for our understanding of demographic processes during the second urban transition in developing countries. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

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  • Mathias Lerch, 2014. "The Role of Migration in the Urban Transition: A Demonstration From Albania," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1527-1550, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:4:p:1527-1550
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-014-0315-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Lerch, 2016. "Internal and International Migration Across the Urban Hierarchy in Albania," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(6), pages 851-876, December.
    2. Martin Bell & Elin Charles-Edwards & Philipp Ueffing & John Stillwell & Marek Kupiszewski & Dorota Kupiszewska, 2015. "Internal Migration and Development: Comparing Migration Intensities Around the World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 33-58, March.
    3. Luca Salvati, 2020. "Demographic Dynamics, Urban Cycles and Economic Downturns: A Long-term Investigation of a Metropolitan Region in Europe, 1956–2016," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(3), pages 549-575, June.
    4. Salvati, Luca, 2020. "Residential mobility and the local context: Comparing long-term and short-term spatial trends of population movements in Greece," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Ilaria Zambon & Kostas Rontos & Cecilia Reynaud & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, February.
    6. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Stefano Poponi & Ahmed Alhuseen & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Uncovering Demographic Trends and Recent Urban Expansion in Metropolitan Regions: A Paradigmatic Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Rosanna Salvia & Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Jesús Rodrigo-Comino & Giovanni Quaranta, 2020. "In-Between ‘Smart’ Urban Growth and ‘Sluggish’ Rural Development? Reframing Population Dynamics in Greece, 1940–2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.
    8. Gianluca Egidi & Giovanni Quaranta & Luca Salvati & Rosanna Salvia & Gimenez Morera Antonio, 2021. "Investigating density-dependent patterns of population growth in Southern Italy, 1861–2019," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, April.
    9. Philippe Bocquier & Rafael Costa, 2015. "Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(48), pages 1297-1332.
    10. Benassi, Federico & Boeri, Marco & Elezi, Pranvera & Zindato, Donatella, 2016. "The importance of spatial adjustment processes in the labour force: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 74500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kostas Rontos & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Mattia Gianvincenzi & Simona Moretti & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Toward a Spatially Segregated Urban Growth? Austerity, Poverty, and the Demographic Decline of Metropolitan Greece," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Luca Salvati, 2018. "Population growth and the economic crisis: understanding latent patterns of change in Greece, 2002–2016," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 105-126, July.
    13. Ashira Menashe‐Oren & Philippe Bocquier, 2021. "Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 639-663, September.
    14. Luca Salvati, 2020. "Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 165-186, August.
    15. Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Giovanni Quaranta, 2021. "Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-23, June.
    16. Bryan Jones & Deborah Balk & Stefan Leyk, 2020. "Urban Change in the United States, 1990–2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, February.
    17. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    18. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.
    19. Kostas Rontos & Andrea Colantoni & Luca Salvati & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Antonio Giménez Morera, 2020. "Resident or Present? Population Census Data Tell You More about Suburbanization," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Sirio Cividino & Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Revisiting the “City Life Cycle”: Global Urbanization and Implications for Regional Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
    21. Margherita Carlucci & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Agglomeration vs amenities? Unraveling the latent engine of growth in metropolitan Greece," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(9), pages 2491-2509, November.
    22. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Bogdana Nosova & Rosario Turco & Massimiliano Giacalone & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.

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