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The proximate determinants of fertility and birth intervals in Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Angela Baschieri

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Andrew Hinde

    (University of Southampton)

Abstract

In this paper we use calendar data from the 2000 Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to assess the determinants of birth interval length among women who are in union. We make use of the well-known model of the proximate determinants of fertility, and take advantage of the fact that the DHS calendar data provide month-by-month data on contraceptive use, breastfeeding and post-partum amenorrhoea, which are the most important proximate determinants among women in union. One aim of the analysis is to see whether the calendar data are sufficiently detailed to account for all variation among individual women in birth interval duration, in that once they are controlled, the effect of background social, economic and cultural variables is not statistically significant. The results suggest that this is indeed the case, especially after a random effect term to account for the unobserved proximate determinants is included in the model. Birth intervals are determined mainly by the use of modern methods of contraception (the IUD being more effective than the pill). Breastfeeding and post-partum amenorrhoea both inhibit conception, and the effect of breastfeeding remains even after the period of amenorrhoea has ended.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Baschieri & Andrew Hinde, 2007. "The proximate determinants of fertility and birth intervals in Egypt," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(3), pages 59-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:16:y:2007:i:3
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    2. Fiona Steele & Siân Curtis, 2003. "Appropriate methods for analyzing the effect of method choice on contraceptive discontinuation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(1), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    4. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    5. James Trussell & Linda Martin & Robert Feldman & James Palmore & Mercedes Concepcion & Datin Abu Bakar, 1985. "Determinants of birth-interval length in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia: a hazard-model Analysis," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(2), pages 145-168, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zakarya Al Zalak & Anne Goujon, 2017. "Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(32), pages 995-1030.
    2. Stephen Gyimah & Alex Ezeh & J. Fotso, 2012. "Frailty models with applications to the study of infant deaths on birth timing in Ghana and Kenya," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1505-1521, August.
    3. David A. Sánchez-Páez & José Antonio Ortega, 2018. "Adolescent contraceptive use and its effects on fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(45), pages 1359-1388.
    4. Ezra Gayawan & Samson B. Adebayo, 2013. "A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(45), pages 1339-1372.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; Egypt; survival analysis; contraceptive use; proximate determinants; calendar data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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