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Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Zakarya Al Zalak

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Anne Goujon

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

Abstract

Background: The unusual fertility increase experienced by several Arab countries in the recent years is particularly visible in Egypt, where fertility declined very slowly after 2000 and started to increase again between 2008 and 2014. Objective: We first check the quality and measurement accuracy of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The analysis confirms the trend since 2000. We descriptively look for possible underlying causes. Methods: We use quality criteria to check DHS data and control for tempo effect. We also perform a proximate determinants analysis to study the mechanisms affecting fertility, particularly marriage and contraceptive use patterns. Results: The trend in fertility, which has been at a level slightly below 3.5 children per woman since 2000, is due to an increase in parity one-to-three children and a steady decline in parity four-and-more children. While changes in contraception use had the largest and a growing suppressing effect before 2000, after the turn of the century there was no change in the impact of either marriage or contraception on fertility. Conclusions: We find that well-educated women between 20 and 29 years lack labour market opportunities. They may have preponed their fertility. Fertility could start declining again once the labour market situation for women has improved. On the other hand, the family model of three children is still widespread in the country. Contribution: The article studies the fertility increase in Egypt. It contributes to the literature on exceptions to the demographic transition, such as stalls in fertility decline, particularly in the context of Arab countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zakarya Al Zalak & Anne Goujon, 2017. "Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(32), pages 995-1030.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:32
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Angela Baschieri & Andrew Hinde, 2007. "The proximate determinants of fertility and birth intervals in Egypt," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(3), pages 59-96.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    2. Aurora Angeli & Silvana Salvini, 2022. "Demography of Mediterranean countries: what does it happen in the two shores?," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(2), pages 4-12, April-Jun.
    3. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    4. Amr Abdelwahed & Anne Goujon & Leiwen Jiang, 2020. "The Migration Intentions of Young Egyptians," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-38, November.
    5. Carmen Friedrich & Henriette Engelhardt & Florian Schulz, 2021. "Women’s Agency in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia: The Role of Parenthood and Education," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 1025-1059, October.
    6. Caroline Krafft & Elizabeth Kula & Maia Sieverding, 2021. "An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(19), pages 605-652.
    7. Konstantin Kazenin & Vladimir Kozlov, 2020. "What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 185-213.
    8. Elena Ambrosetti & Aurora Angeli & Marco Novelli, 2021. "Childbearing intentions among Egyptian men and women: The role of gender-equitable attitudes and women’s empowerment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(51), pages 1229-1270.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; fertility stall; tempo effects; employment; Egypt; Arab Spring; birth displacement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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