A Special Safeguard Mechanism for Agricultural Imports: what experience with other GATT/WTO safeguards tells us about what might work

The success of existing GATT/WTO safeguard or flexibility provisions to sustain long-run liberalization stems from their procedural criteria (e.g., transparent and participatory decisions to impose new import restrictions) overcoming their suspect economic criteria (e.g., injury). The proposed SSM includes no procedural and minimal notification requirements. It would expand by arithmetic formulas the bounds within which a Member might unilaterally impose new import restrictions. Simulations indicate that the formulas provide a poor guide for policy – they would (a) allow an import restriction more often in situations when it is not beneficial than when it is, and (b) in situations in which an import restriction would help, they more often ban it than allow it. If procedural requirements are out – i.e., developing Members insist on a ‘usable’ safeguard – then the simple rule ‘bound rates may be exceeded for a maximum of [x] tariff lines at any one time’ is better economics than the proposed price and volume triggers. (No economic criteria are better than bad economic criteria.) Each Member would have the flexibility to change its lists of Special Products and Sensitive Products, there being a limit on the numbers of products on the lists at any one time.