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Reconciled Estimates And Nowcasts Of Regional Output In The Uk

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  • Koop, Gary
  • McIntyre, Stuart
  • Mitchell, James
  • Poon, Aubrey

Abstract

There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has led to more investment in economic statistics. Specifically, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently started to produce quarterly regional GDP data for the nine English regions and Wales that date back to 2012Q1. This complements existing real GVA data for the regions available from the ONS on an annual basis back to 1998; with the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland producing their own quarterly output measures. In this paper we reconcile these two data sources along with UK quarterly output data that date back to 1970. This enables us to produce both more timely real terms estimates of quarterly economic growth in the regions of the UK and a new reconciled historical time-series of quarterly regional real output data from 1970. We explore a number of features of interest of these new data. This includes producing a new quarterly regional productivity series and commenting on the evolution of regional productivity growth in the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Reconciled Estimates And Nowcasts Of Regional Output In The Uk," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 253, pages 44-59, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:253:y:2020:i::p:r44-r59_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Kucuk, Hande & Lenoel, Cyrille & MacQueen, Rory, 2021. "Brisk but not better growth," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 2, pages 5-32.
    2. Chadha, Jagjit S., 2023. "Foreword," National Institute Global Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 9, pages 1-3.
    3. Kucuk, Hande & Lenoel, Cyrille & MacQueen, Rory, 2021. "UK sectoral output," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 2, pages 33-41.
    4. Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2024. "Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 626-640.
    5. Niesr, 2021. "Appendix," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 2, pages 58-66.
    6. Lehmann, Robert & Wikman, Ida, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," MPRA Paper 112642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Lisauskaite, Elena & Pabst, Adrian & Tzendrei, Tibor, 2021. "UK Regional Outlook," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 3, pages 37-50.
    8. Niesr, 2021. "Overview," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 2, pages 1-4.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Uncertainty and forecastability of regional output growth in the UK: Evidence from machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1049-1064, September.
    10. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Mark E. Wohar, 2022. "Uncertainty and predictability of real housing returns in the United Kingdom: A regional analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1525-1556, November.

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