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Demographics and FDI: lessons from China’s one-child policy

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  • Donaldson, John B.
  • Koulovatianos, Christos
  • Li, Jian
  • Mehra, Rajnish

Abstract

Following the introduction of the one-child policy in China, the capital-labor ratio of China increased relative to that of India, while FDI/GDP inflows to China versus India simultaneously declined. These observations are explained in the context of a simple neoclassical overlapping generations paradigm. The adjustment mechanism works as follows: the reduction in the growth rate of the (urban) labor force due to the one-child policy increases the capital per worker inherited from the previous generation. The resulting increase in China’s domestic capital-labor ratio thus "crowds out" the need for foreign direct investment (FDI) in China relative to India. Our paper is a contribution to the nascent literature exploring demographic transitions and their effects on FDI flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Donaldson, John B. & Koulovatianos, Christos & Li, Jian & Mehra, Rajnish, 2025. "Demographics and FDI: lessons from China’s one-child policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:29:y:2025:i::p:-_15
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