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The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply

Author

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  • Hui He
  • Lei Ning
  • Dongming Zhu

Abstract

We study, both empirically and quantitatively, the role of savings and the labor supply in self-insurance channels over the life cycle when one faces not only idiosyncratic income risks, but also changes in longevity risk and pension benefits. We pick China as a case study since China has undergone a dramatic process of rapid aging and a tremendous reduction in social security benefits for the period 1995-2009. We find that both savings and the labor supply are quantitatively important self-insurance channels in responding to changes in longevity risk and pension benefits, and the responses via adjustment to savings and labor supply have significant macroeconomic implications. Applying the model to China, we find that the pension reform and rapid aging together contribute 55 percent of the increase in the household saving rate from 1995 to 2009, and they jointly capture about 64 percent of the drastic increase in the labor supply for the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui He & Lei Ning & Dongming Zhu, 2019. "The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply," IMF Working Papers 2019/061, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/061
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    Cited by:

    1. Deng, Yuanyuan & Fang, Hanming & Hanewald, Katja & Wu, Shang, 2023. "Delay the Pension Age or Adjust the Pension Benefit? Implications for Labor Supply and Individual Welfare in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1192-1215.
    2. Zhe Li & Qingyu Peng, 2022. "How much between‐group wage gaps can be explained by talent allocation frictions in China?," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 183-215, July.
    3. Jiang, Min & Kim, Euijune, 2024. "Measuring the impacts of the two-child policy on industrial structure and economic growth in china using a CGE model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

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