IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jpenef/v18y2019i03p347-387_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pension funds, large capital inflows and stock returns in a thin market

Author

Listed:
  • BRZESZCZYŃSKI, JANUSZ
  • BOHL, MARTIN T.
  • SERWA, DOBROMIŁ

Abstract

Using unique data about capital flows from the public social security institute ZUS (Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych) to private pension funds OFEs (Otwarte Fundusze Emerytalne) in Poland, we find that their impact, as a group of large institutional investors, on stock returns is statistically significant in short-term but no such effect exists in the long-run. This result is consistent with the temporary price pressure hypothesis of Ben-Rephael et al. (2011). We analyze the capital transfers, in the form of the aggregated pension contributions collected from all employees in the entire Polish economy, from the ZUS to the private pension funds, which further invest this capital on the stock market. The average time for the subsequent reaction of stock prices is found to be 4 days. The trading strategy based on this result generates superior outcomes in comparison with the passive strategy, which further confirms the price impact of capital inflows. Our findings are not only relevant for stock market investors but they also have broader policy implications for stock market regulators and for the national pension regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Bohl, Martin T. & Serwa, Dobromił, 2019. "Pension funds, large capital inflows and stock returns in a thin market," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 347-387, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:18:y:2019:i:03:p:347-387_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S147474721800001X/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amil Dasgupta & Andrea Prat & Michela Verardo, 2011. "Institutional Trade Persistence and Long‐Term Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 635-653, April.
    2. Ian Domowitz & Jack Glen & Ananth Madhavan, 2001. "Liquidity, Volatility and Equity Trading Costs Across Countries and Over Time," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 221-255.
    3. Janusz Brzeszczynski & Michael Melvin, 2006. "Explaining trading volume in the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 25-34.
    4. John M. Griffin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Selim Topaloglu, 2003. "The Dynamics of Institutional and Individual Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2285-2320, December.
    5. Paramita Mukherjee & Malabika Roy, 2016. "What Drives the Stock Market Return in India? An Exploration with Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 15(1), pages 119-145, April.
    6. Bohl, Martin T. & Brzeszczynski, Janusz, 2006. "Do institutional investors destabilize stock prices? evidence from an emerging market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 370-383, October.
    7. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    8. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W. & Mayers, David, 1987. "The effect of large block transactions on security prices: A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 237-267, December.
    9. Carole Comerton-Forde & David R. Gallagher & Jumana Nahhas & Terry S. Walter, 2010. "Transaction costs and institutional trading in small-cap equity funds," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 35(3), pages 313-327, December.
    10. Lee, Bong Soo & Li, Wei & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2010. "The dynamics of individual and institutional trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 116-137, January.
    11. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, 2001. "Institutional Investors and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 229-259.
    12. Bohl, Martin T. & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Institutional investors and stock returns volatility: Empirical evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 170-182, June.
    13. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:869-898 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Charlie Charoenwong & David K. Ding & Nattawut Jenwittayaroje, 2010. "Price Movers on the Stock Exchange of Thailand: Evidence from a Fully Automated Order‐Driven Market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 761-783, August.
    16. Cohen, Randolph B. & Gompers, Paul A. & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2002. "Who underreacts to cash-flow news? evidence from trading between individuals and institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 409-462.
    17. Saar, Gideon, 2001. "Price Impact Asymmetry of Block Trades: An Institutional Trading Explanation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 1153-1181.
    18. Jinwoo Park & Minhyuk Kim, 2014. "Investment Performance of Individual Investors: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(S1), pages 194-211.
    19. Campbell, John Y. & Ramadorai, Tarun & Schwartz, Allie, 2009. "Caught on tape: Institutional trading, stock returns, and earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 66-91, April.
    20. M.V. Lakshman & Sankarshan Basu & R. Vaidyanathan, 2013. "Market-wide Herding and the Impact of Institutional Investors in the Indian Capital Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 12(2), pages 197-237, August.
    21. Edgardo Cayon & Susan Thorp, 2014. "Financial Autarchy as Contagion Prevention: The Case of Colombian Pension Funds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 122-139, May.
    22. repec:bla:intfin:v:4:y:2001:i:2:p:221-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    24. Rakowski, David & Wang, Xiaoxin, 2009. "The dynamics of short-term mutual fund flows and returns: A time-series and cross-sectional investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2102-2109, November.
    25. Chune Young Chung & Chang Liu & Kainan Wang, 2016. "Institutional Investor Trading in a Short Investment Horizon: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 1002-1012, April.
    26. Kraus, Alan & Stoll, Hans R, 1972. "Price Impacts of Block Trading on the New York Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 569-588, June.
    27. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    28. Thomas, Ashok & Spataro, Luca & Mathew, Nanditha, 2014. "Pension funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 92-103.
    29. Richard W. Sias & Laura T. Starks, 2006. "Changes in Institutional Ownership and Stock Returns: Assessment and Methodology," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2869-2910, November.
    30. Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
    31. Chiyachantana, Chiraphol N. & Jain, Pankaj K. & Jiang, Christine & Wood, Robert A., 2006. "Volatility effects of institutional trading in foreign stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2199-2214, August.
    32. Keim, Donald B & Madhaven, Ananth, 1996. "The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36.
    33. Ly Slesman & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Mark E. Wohar, 2015. "Capital Inflows and Economic Growth: Does the Role of Institutions Matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 253-275, July.
    34. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    35. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    36. Shive, Sophie & Yun, Hayong, 2013. "Are mutual funds sitting ducks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 220-237.
    37. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:12:p:3457-3489 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Schuppli, Michael & Bohl, Martin T., 2010. "Do foreign institutional investors destabilize China's A-share markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 36-50, February.
    39. Jinwoo Park & Minhyuk Kim, 2014. "Investment Performance of Individual Investors: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1S), pages 194-211, January.
    40. Zalewska, Anna, 2006. "Is locking domestic funds into the local market beneficial? Evidence from the Polish pension reforms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 339-360, December.
    41. Chan, Louis K. C. & Lakonishok, Josef, 1993. "Institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-199, April.
    42. Anna Zalewska, 2006. "Is Locking Domestic Funds into the Local Market Beneficial? Evidence from the Polish Pension Reforms," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 06/153, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    43. Goyal, Amit, 2004. "Demographics, Stock Market Flows, and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 115-142, March.
    44. Francisco Bravo & José Luis Ruiz, 2015. "Herding Behavior and Default in Funded Pension Schemes: The Chilean Case," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 1230-1243, November.
    45. Dong Lou, 2012. "A Flow-Based Explanation for Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3457-3489.
    46. Douglas Foster, F. & Gallagher, David R. & Looi, Adrian, 2011. "Institutional trading and share returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3383-3399.
    47. Craig Israelsen, 2005. "A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(6), pages 423-427, April.
    48. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    49. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ismail, Izlin & Gee, Chan Sok, 2017. "Mutual funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of Asian emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 176-192.
    50. Ammann, Manuel & Zingg, Andreas, 2010. "Performance and governance of Swiss pension funds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 95-128, January.
    51. Andrew Koch & Stefan Ruenzi & Laura Starks, 2016. "Editor's Choice Commonality in Liquidity: A Demand-Side Explanation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 1943-1974.
    52. Koh, Benedict S. K. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Tanuwidjaja, Toto & Fong, Joelle, 2008. "Investment patterns in Singapore's Central Provident Fund System," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 37-65, March.
    53. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2011. "The Price Pressure of Aggregate Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 585-603, April.
    54. Bikker, Jacob A. & Spierdijk, Laura & van der Sluis, Pieter Jelle, 2007. "Market impact costs of institutional equity trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 974-1000, October.
    55. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
    56. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hyeladi Stanley Dibal & Habila Abel Haruna & Chinyere C. Onyejiaku & Ogbole Friday Ogbole & Josaphat Uchechukwu J. Onwumere, 2024. "Pension Fund Investments and Capital Market Development in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of Inflation," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 16(2), pages 248-269, May.
    2. Rafał Wolski & Monika Bolek & Jerzy Gajdka & Janusz Brzeszczyński & Ali M. Kutan, 2023. "Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 757-794, February.
    3. Gudjonsson Jon & Hougaard Jensen Svend E., 2023. "Pension Funds and Financial Stability: The Case of the UK Gilt Crisis," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 155-159, June.
    4. Rafał Buła, 2020. "Transition matrix and stochastic kernel for repeatability assessment of performance of Polish open pension funds," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(2), pages 984-1005, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janusz Brzeszczyński & Martin T. Bohl & Dobromił Serwa, 2012. "Large Capital Inflows and Stock Returnsin a Thin Market," CFI Discussion Papers 1201, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.
    2. Li, Wei & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2010. "Daily institutional trades and stock price volatility in a retail investor dominated emerging market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 448-474, November.
    3. Campbell, John Y. & Ramadorai, Tarun & Schwartz, Allie, 2009. "Caught on tape: Institutional trading, stock returns, and earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 66-91, April.
    4. Ülkü, Numan & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Identifying the interaction between stock market returns and trading flows of investor types: Looking into the day using daily data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2733-2749.
    5. Baltzer, Markus & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2019. "Who trades on momentum?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 56-74.
    6. Tian, Shu & Wu, Eliza & Wu, Qiongbing, 2018. "Who exacerbates the extreme swings in the Chinese stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 50-59.
    7. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    8. Choi, Nicole & Sias, Richard W., 2009. "Institutional industry herding," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 469-491, December.
    9. Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "A tug of war: Overnight versus intraday expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 192-213.
    10. Peng, Cameron & Wang, Chen, 2021. "Factor demand and factor returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118884, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Douglas Foster, F. & Gallagher, David R. & Looi, Adrian, 2011. "Institutional trading and share returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3383-3399.
    12. Artiga Gonzalez, Tanja & Dyakov, Teodor & Inhoffen, Justus & Wipplinger, Evert, 2024. "Crowding of international mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Jiang, Hao, 2010. "Institutional investors, intangible information, and the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 98-126, April.
    14. Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar, 2016. "Institutional investment, equity volume and volatility spillover: Causalities and asymmetries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-20.
    15. Hongwei Chuang, 2020. "The impacts of institutional ownership on stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 507-533, February.
    16. Charles Cao & Lubomir Petrasek, 2011. "Liquidity risk and hedge fund ownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Thomas, Ashok & Spataro, Luca & Mathew, Nanditha, 2014. "Pension funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 92-103.
    18. Darby, Julia & Zhang, Hai & Zhang, Jinkai, 2021. "Institutional trading in volatile markets: Evidence from Chinese stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Amil Dasgupta & Andrea Prat & Michela Verardo, 2011. "The Price Impact of Institutional Herding," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 892-925.
    20. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ismail, Izlin & Gee, Chan Sok, 2017. "Mutual funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of Asian emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 176-192.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:18:y:2019:i:03:p:347-387_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/pef .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.