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Futures Markets and Firm Decisions Under Price, Production, and Financial Uncertainty

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  • Alexander, Vickie J.
  • Musser, Wesley N.
  • Mason, George

Abstract

Incorporation of futures markets into the theory of the firm under uncertainty has received considerable attention in risk management. A theoretical model of optimal firm decisions in cash and futures markets considering price, production, and financial risks is presented. Production and marketing strategies for corn and soybeans in Georgia and Illinois are analyzed to determine the optimal amount of futures contracting which may be a hedge or a speculative position. A partial hedge is optimal for most situations for risk averse producers when the amount hedged is variable. With fixed quantity transactions, speculative and cash positions, but not hedging, tend to be E-V efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander, Vickie J. & Musser, Wesley N. & Mason, George, 1986. "Futures Markets and Firm Decisions Under Price, Production, and Financial Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 39-50, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:18:y:1986:i:02:p:39-50_00
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    1. Peter Berck, 1981. "Portfolio Theory and the Demand for Futures: The Case of California Cotton," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(3), pages 466-474.
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    7. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D., 1982. "Hedging And Production Decisions Under A Linear Mean-Variance Preference Function," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, July.
    8. Gershon Feder & Richard E. Just & Andrew Schmitz, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(2), pages 317-328.
    9. Rolfo, Jacques, 1980. "Optimal Hedging under Price and Quantity Uncertainty: The Case of a Cocoa Producer," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 100-116, February.
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    1. T. P. Zacharias & D. A. Zaunbrecher & H. D. Traylor & B. E. McManus, 1987. "An analysis of preharvest soybean marketing strategies in louisiana using forward and futures contracts," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 413-426.
    2. Asplund, Nathan M. & Forster, D. Lynn & Stout, Thomas T., 1989. "Participation By Farmers In Forward Contracting And Hedging," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270516, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Batts, Ryan M., 2006. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37513, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    4. Batts, Ryan M. & Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel, 2009. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Wheat Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 183426, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    5. Wesley N. Musser & George F. Patrick & David T. Eckman, 1996. "Risk and Grain Marketing Behavior of Large-Scale Farmers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 65-77.
    6. Jordaan, Henry & Grove, Bennie, 2008. "Factors affecting the use of forward pricing methods in price risk management with special reference to the influence of risk aversion," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(1), pages 1-14, March.
    7. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.

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