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The resource curse revisited: A Bayesian model averaging approach

Author

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  • Arin, K. Peren
  • Braunfels, Elias

Abstract

The evidence for the effects of oil rents on growth is mixed, a result which can be explained with model uncertainty. We address the issue using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques and an updated cross-country data set for long-term growth in the period 1970–2014, including 91 countries and 54 potential growth determinants. We do not find empirical evidence for the existence of a “natural resource curse” in our sample. On the contrary, our results suggest a robust positive effect of oil rents on long-term economic growth. We then introduce interaction terms of oil rents with potential conditions under which oil dependency can lead to sub-standard growth. The results indicate that the positive effect of oil rents may be conditional on the quality of institutions. We test the robustness of our results using a panel data set and find neither a curse nor a positive effect of oil rents on short- to medium-run growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Arin, K. Peren & Braunfels, Elias, 2018. "The resource curse revisited: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 170-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:170-178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.033
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil; Growth; Natural resource curse; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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