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Malthusian Migrations

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  • Guillaume Blanc
  • Romain Wacziarg

Abstract

For most of human history, until the fertility transition, technological progress translated into larger populations, preventing sustained improvements in living standards. We argue that migration offered an escape valve from these Malthusian dynamics after the European discovery and colonization of the Americas. We document a strong relationship between fertility and migration across countries, regions, individuals, and periods, in a variety of datasets and specifications, and with different identification strategies. During the Age of Mass Migration, persistently high fertility across much of Europe created a large reservoir of surplus labor that could find better opportunities in the New World. These migrations, by relieving demographic pressures, accelerated the transition to modern growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Blanc & Romain Wacziarg, 2025. "Malthusian Migrations," NBER Working Papers 33542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33542
    Note: DAE EFG POL
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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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