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Análisis sobre la evolución del COVID-19 en Colombia: ¿se alcanzará el pico de contagio?

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  • Álvaro H. Chaves Castro

Abstract

Se realiza un análisis de la evolución de los casos diarios de contagios y el número de muertes para Colombia y algunas ciudades con base en información oficial reportada por el Ministerio de Salud, con el fin de dar respuesta a la siguiente pregunta: ¿dada la trayectoria actual del nuevo coronavirus, es posible estimar el futuro pico de contagios? A partir de la construcción de una estructura de datos de panel, se estiman modelos con tendencia cuadrática temporal para el logaritmo del número de contagios y muertes por COVID-19. La estimación de la dinámica de los contagios y de las muertes de manera recursiva a partir del método de regresiones rolling window muestra un buen ajuste, permitiendo predecir cuándo se alcanzará el pico de la epidemia en función de los nuevos casos reportados oficialmente. Se estiman algunos factores asociados a la evolución de la pandemia, especialmente el efecto de la velocidad de contagio (tasa de reproducción efectiva, Ro) sobre la trayectoria futura de los contagios diarios. Además, se intenta estimar el impacto de las medidas de aislamiento preventivo adoptadas por las autoridades nacionales y regionales. Los resultados muestran que el pico de la pandemia en Colombia se alcanza aproximadamente a finales de agosto, período que coincide con estudios epidemiológicos más elaborados. El número promedio de nuevos casos diarios en el pico alcanzaría más de 10.000 contagios, mientras que el máximo número de fallecidos en el pico sería de 44.471. La estimación del impacto de las medidas de confinamiento muestra que se logra aplazar el pico y reducir el número de contagios y muertes.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro H. Chaves Castro, 2021. "Análisis sobre la evolución del COVID-19 en Colombia: ¿se alcanzará el pico de contagio?," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 8(1), pages 123-160, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000485:018543
    DOI: 10.21789/24222704.1672
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagios; tendencia cuadrática; confinamiento; rolling window;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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